{ "ticker": { "uuid": "07747eaf-9bc7-4963-bd09-ba91a73470a8", "symbol": "ETHE", "name": "GRAYSCALE ETHEREUM STAKING ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.779, "architecture_energy": 22.484, "architecture_maturity": 81.78, "architecture_confidence": 59.569, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.02, "rotation_up": 30.48, "upward_expansion": 19.52, "deceleration": 46.87, "rotation_down": 20.16, "downward_expansion": 53.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.105041, 14.561406, 15.191472, 15.766271 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 15.46, "trend_reference": 16.891445, "distance_from_trend": -0.084744, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.137061, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.301624, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.795928, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.072159, "excess_performance": -0.197784, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.084744, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.175051, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.301624, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16562, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.397959, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066472, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.072159, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.174608, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7638350, "relative_activity": 0.688388, "balance": 1.174608, "dry_up": 0.769452, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093963, "annualized_volatility": 0.483822, "from_high_reference": -0.611029, "from_low_reference": 0.252705 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.891445, "fair_value_reference": 22.137061, "structural_low": 12.341296, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.054328, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.046015, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.430206, "worst_return": -0.363464, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.041939, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.130047, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.608016, "worst_return": -0.472289, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.288547, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.279091, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.471798, "worst_return": -0.459018, 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[ 14.160628, 14.151682, 15.469782, 16.225373 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.99846, "volume": 7605501, "typical_volume": 12081070.1, "trend": 17.551043, "fair_value": 22.085838, "relative_strength": -40.910294, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.188793, "energy": 32.678818, "activity_lines": [ 14.526962, 14.211959, 15.354884, 16.041748 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.028417, "volume": 9860477, "typical_volume": 11569439.05, "trend": 17.20726, "fair_value": 22.109882, "relative_strength": -40.550501, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.135128, "energy": 23.263427, "activity_lines": [ 14.821327, 14.332182, 15.247831, 15.878998 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.46, "volume": 7638350, "typical_volume": 11095995.45, "trend": 16.891445, "fair_value": 22.137061, "relative_strength": -39.795928, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.778631, "energy": 22.483734, "activity_lines": [ 15.105041, 14.561406, 15.191472, 15.766271 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }