{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0776f26c-3dc0-41e7-9980-32a8c21476c0", "symbol": "CORN", "name": "WisdomTree Corn", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 75.183, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -24.91, "architecture_energy": 21.292, "architecture_maturity": 64.363, "architecture_confidence": 60.101, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.62, "rotation_up": 36.99, "upward_expansion": 19.5, "deceleration": 43.77, "rotation_down": 21.49, "downward_expansion": 53.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.7824, 15.577927, 15.680895, 15.833024 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 15.6, "trend_reference": 15.922867, "distance_from_trend": -0.020277, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.526541, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.157965, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.439315, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.00902, "excess_performance": -0.179912, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.020277, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018331, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.157965, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00852, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.164393, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052399, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.00902, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.87571, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21659, "relative_activity": 0.586498, "balance": 0.87571, "dry_up": 0.715447, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041183, "annualized_volatility": 0.198393, "from_high_reference": -0.101693, "from_low_reference": 0.068493 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.922867, "fair_value_reference": 18.526541, "structural_low": 14.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.012491, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.032801, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.097043, "worst_return": -0.091903, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.01152, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.044481, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.146725, "worst_return": -0.168902, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.081955, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.16031, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.494346, "worst_return": -0.176701, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"down", "direction": -43.970766, "energy": 29.333667, "activity_lines": [ 15.401467, 15.360291, 15.710143, 15.845695 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.507999, "volume": 37512, "typical_volume": 45550.4, "trend": 15.962667, "fair_value": 18.626082, "relative_strength": -9.170359, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.531094, "energy": 14.045712, "activity_lines": [ 15.806933, 15.542582, 15.757181, 15.881583 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.56, "volume": 25531, "typical_volume": 41651.15, "trend": 15.95, "fair_value": 18.576705, "relative_strength": -14.553915, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.648584, "energy": 22.168693, "activity_lines": [ 15.801466, 15.547673, 15.713362, 15.855604 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.6, "volume": 21659, "typical_volume": 36929.35, "trend": 15.922867, "fair_value": 18.526541, "relative_strength": -16.439315, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.909719, "energy": 21.292381, "activity_lines": [ 15.7824, 15.577927, 15.680895, 15.833024 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }