{ "ticker": { "uuid": "078109d2-dc3d-495f-9719-f698b2ed8cff", "symbol": "002652", "name": "Suzhou Yangtze New Materials Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.389, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.847, "architecture_energy": 76.338, "architecture_maturity": 24.197, "architecture_confidence": 86.424, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.32, "rotation_up": 9.62, "upward_expansion": 17.75, "deceleration": 37.66, "rotation_down": 76.13, "downward_expansion": 93.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.66, 3.892727, 4.497619, 4.631548 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.83, "trend_reference": 4.656333, "distance_from_trend": -0.177464, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.360513, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.139707, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.932508, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.027919, "excess_performance": -0.035319, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.177464, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021126, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.139707, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.914364, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.129325, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.493233, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.027919, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.308612, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 81994080, "relative_activity": 0.6156, "balance": 0.308612, "dry_up": 0.841926, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.155051, "annualized_volatility": 0.638904, "from_high_reference": -0.434269, "from_low_reference": 0.272425 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.656333, "fair_value_reference": 3.360513, "structural_low": 3.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.003745, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.040195, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.119231, "worst_return": -0.072639, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.047475, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.045116, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.107692, "worst_return": -0.024476, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.111788, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.093644, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.468531, "worst_return": -0.026217, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.246862, 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4.870238, 4.840946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.42, "volume": 140476820, "typical_volume": 159070561.85, "trend": 4.689333, "fair_value": 3.34859, "relative_strength": -20.21322, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -49.699888, "energy": 67.142838, "activity_lines": [ 3.761333, 4.175818, 4.721048, 4.758624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.55, "volume": 88813804, "typical_volume": 150993632.1, "trend": 4.660333, "fair_value": 3.353846, "relative_strength": -15.551776, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.771308, "energy": 69.814174, "activity_lines": [ 3.638667, 3.983091, 4.591333, 4.685118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.83, "volume": 81994080, "typical_volume": 133193863.95, "trend": 4.656333, "fair_value": 3.360513, "relative_strength": -12.932508, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.846606, "energy": 76.337544, "activity_lines": [ 3.66, 3.892727, 4.497619, 4.631548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }