{ "ticker": { "uuid": "078657d6-62cf-4030-ba70-bb95799ab031", "symbol": "PREMEXPLN", "name": "Premier Explosives Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.595, "architecture_energy": 25.969, "architecture_maturity": 69.215, "architecture_confidence": 95.259, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.03, "rotation_up": 22.9, "upward_expansion": 56.67, "deceleration": 91.0, "rotation_down": 32.09, "downward_expansion": 20.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 657.640002, 686.05, 659.963808, 617.53645 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 641.200012, "trend_reference": 568.598333, "distance_from_trend": 0.127685, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 475.758864, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.347742, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.72824, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.358906, "excess_performance": 0.402616, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.127685, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105276, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.347742, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067312, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.137282, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065955, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.358906, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.843055, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1883590, "relative_activity": 0.628128, "balance": 1.843055, "dry_up": 0.62497, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109224, "annualized_volatility": 0.529133, "from_high_reference": -0.210248, "from_low_reference": 0.694503 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 568.598333, "fair_value_reference": 475.758864, "structural_low": 378.399994, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.006292, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.002695, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.721791, "worst_return": -0.102329, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.205176, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.199636, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.733079, "worst_return": -0.18716, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.392709, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.370745, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.585808, "worst_return": -0.291555, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 735.553333, 709.126365, 633.246903, 591.665913 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 664.099976, "volume": 1905932, "typical_volume": 2925322.9, "trend": 555.761667, "fair_value": 466.963044, "relative_strength": 21.649638, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.296716, "energy": 49.885161, "activity_lines": [ 711.656657, 707.611815, 641.591187, 599.026127 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 662.099976, "volume": 2430402, "typical_volume": 2958863.35, "trend": 560.356666, "fair_value": 469.977999, "relative_strength": 23.290988, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.733288, "energy": 36.543624, "activity_lines": [ 688.996651, 703.665448, 649.142852, 605.886663 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 664.150024, "volume": 1276552, "typical_volume": 2964805.3, "trend": 564.421666, "fair_value": 472.978625, "relative_strength": 19.540549, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.268581, "energy": 26.964996, "activity_lines": [ 674.566663, 697.56818, 656.153807, 612.583009 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 641.200012, "volume": 1883590, "typical_volume": 2998733.65, "trend": 568.598333, "fair_value": 475.758864, "relative_strength": 13.72824, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.594572, "energy": 25.968519, "activity_lines": [ 657.640002, 686.05, 659.963808, 617.53645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }