{ "ticker": { "uuid": "078ac162-66ea-4bf0-abb1-46c97f4398f7", "symbol": "603626", "name": "Kunshan Kersen Science & Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.971, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.915, "architecture_energy": 84.446, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.512, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.22, "rotation_up": 8.81, "upward_expansion": 21.14, "deceleration": 37.1, "rotation_down": 76.0, "downward_expansion": 94.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.266667, 16.053818, 19.26019, 20.612301 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.73, "trend_reference": 21.898333, "distance_from_trend": -0.28168, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.146311, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.411229, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.672487, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.224741, "excess_performance": -0.181537, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.28168, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05658, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.411229, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.341467, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.136725, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.791776, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.224741, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.81864, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 193473033, "relative_activity": 1.422393, "balance": 0.81864, "dry_up": 1.021295, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.192528, "annualized_volatility": 0.806781, "from_high_reference": -0.461301, "from_low_reference": 0.831199 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.898333, "fair_value_reference": 11.146311, "structural_low": 11.47, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.021345, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.021725, "regime_survival": 0.65, "best_return": 1.636727, "worst_return": -0.13732, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.042607, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.023845, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 1.454229, "worst_return": -0.174972, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.273669, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.363058, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.238875, "worst_return": -0.202658, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -26.080688, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.765569, "energy": 88.811667, "activity_lines": [ 15.388667, 17.843273, 20.655619, 21.615764 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.0, "volume": 131874714, "typical_volume": 133788410.45, "trend": 22.072, "fair_value": 11.087621, "relative_strength": -26.176593, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.89813, "energy": 90.325636, "activity_lines": [ 14.187333, 16.563454, 19.803381, 21.021462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.73, "volume": 193473033, "typical_volume": 136019347.2, "trend": 21.898333, "fair_value": 11.146311, "relative_strength": -13.672487, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.914885, "energy": 84.446374, "activity_lines": [ 14.266667, 16.053818, 19.26019, 20.612301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }