{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0798b3ce-78b6-4460-9e0a-4ad18c33139e", "symbol": "2530", "name": "Delpha Construction Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.252, "architecture_energy": 31.328, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 77.356, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.91, "rotation_up": 26.75, "upward_expansion": 20.04, "deceleration": 46.61, "rotation_down": 35.11, "downward_expansion": 58.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.6, 19.580909, 19.854048, 20.821828 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 19.4, "trend_reference": 22.378334, "distance_from_trend": -0.13309, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 31.347091, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.381123, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -46.959053, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.243665, "excess_performance": -0.685037, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.13309, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112082, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.381123, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048533, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.469591, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026834, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.243665, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.759593, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1974126, "relative_activity": 0.369608, "balance": 0.759593, "dry_up": 0.819836, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069191, "annualized_volatility": 0.262869, "from_high_reference": -0.382719, "from_low_reference": 0.096045 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.378334, "fair_value_reference": 31.347091, "structural_low": 17.700001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.006289, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.010065, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.163822, "worst_return": -0.094017, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.002938, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.042219, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.315068, "worst_return": -0.299625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.022366, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.027963, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.319587, "worst_return": -0.301683, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -45.385523, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.13275, "energy": 38.772105, "activity_lines": [ 19.633333, 19.575455, 20.274524, 21.486882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.9, "volume": 7155739, "typical_volume": 5351172.15, "trend": 23.016667, "fair_value": 31.37647, "relative_strength": -44.068126, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.01489, "energy": 32.375798, "activity_lines": [ 19.793333, 19.632727, 20.138572, 21.267312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.450001, "volume": 3190426, "typical_volume": 5360213.3, "trend": 22.738334, "fair_value": 31.369282, "relative_strength": -45.820672, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.254444, "energy": 32.101767, "activity_lines": [ 19.706667, 19.618182, 19.985715, 21.037205 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 19.4, "volume": 1974126, "typical_volume": 5341131.7, "trend": 22.378334, "fair_value": 31.347091, "relative_strength": -46.959053, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.2519, "energy": 31.327685, "activity_lines": [ 19.6, 19.580909, 19.854048, 20.821828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }