{ "ticker": { "uuid": "07a2166c-6d5a-4a69-beb6-c287019fdab4", "symbol": "276970", "name": "KODEX US S&P Dividend Covered Call", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 60.859, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 28.804, "architecture_energy": 41.838, "architecture_maturity": 5.263, "architecture_confidence": 59.576, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.64, "rotation_up": 68.64, "upward_expansion": 53.71, "deceleration": 16.72, "rotation_down": 15.4, "downward_expansion": 21.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 7748.0, 7676.284748, 7553.43567, 7593.497486 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 7790.0, "trend_reference": 7668.931885, "distance_from_trend": 0.015787, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7570.736729, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.028962, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.88622, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.025228, "excess_performance": -0.255057, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015787, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007816, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.028962, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065592, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.188862, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.301271, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.025228, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.867011, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46544, "relative_activity": 0.473555, "balance": 0.867011, "dry_up": 0.663556, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028788, "annualized_volatility": 0.132733, "from_high_reference": -0.049817, "from_low_reference": 0.108744 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7668.931885, "fair_value_reference": 7570.736729, "structural_low": 7025.966642, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.008346, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.015839, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.035924, "worst_return": -0.023109, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.023638, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.017732, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.038459, "worst_return": -0.002824, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.006295, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.120292, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.005053, "worst_return": -0.047651, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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7602.675977, 7460.859535, 7485.19318, 7572.327262 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7640.0, "volume": 40918, "typical_volume": 98998.75, "trend": 7649.244564, "fair_value": 7571.467532, "relative_strength": -30.01788, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.583861, "energy": 24.221447, "activity_lines": [ 7639.158366, 7510.51693, 7490.899207, 7572.027245 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7700.0, "volume": 58300, "typical_volume": 98210.55, "trend": 7654.624284, "fair_value": 7570.85991, "relative_strength": -27.044917, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.96739, "energy": 31.626328, "activity_lines": [ 7678.666667, 7565.111319, 7504.462823, 7575.301789 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7810.0, "volume": 115112, "typical_volume": 100393.3, "trend": 7663.342415, "fair_value": 7570.767428, "relative_strength": -23.856639, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.883114, "energy": 38.962591, "activity_lines": [ 7725.333333, 7628.166717, 7529.938163, 7585.326029 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7790.0, "volume": 46544, "typical_volume": 98286.4, "trend": 7668.931885, "fair_value": 7570.736729, "relative_strength": -18.88622, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.803853, "energy": 41.837518, "activity_lines": [ 7748.0, 7676.284748, 7553.43567, 7593.497486 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }