{ "ticker": { "uuid": "07a561e7-0baf-4ec9-80e9-7e15a81898cf", "symbol": "2200", "name": "Arabian Pipes Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 2.505, "architecture_energy": 17.616, "architecture_maturity": 56.11, "architecture_confidence": 74.313, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.32, "rotation_up": 17.46, "upward_expansion": 48.82, "deceleration": 84.2, "rotation_down": 39.89, "downward_expansion": 29.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.51, 6.728297, 6.828299, 6.544206 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.38, "trend_reference": 6.097941, "distance_from_trend": 0.046255, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.809129, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.063023, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 12.472049, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.270552, "excess_performance": 0.302382, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.046255, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.123119, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.063023, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11835, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.12472, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105115, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.270552, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.589083, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12427974, "relative_activity": 0.36008, "balance": 1.589083, "dry_up": 0.420237, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078032, "annualized_volatility": 0.44388, "from_high_reference": -0.180597, "from_low_reference": 0.533014 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.097941, "fair_value_reference": 6.809129, "structural_low": 4.161737, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.020256, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.026576, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.266954, "worst_return": -0.144993, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.234177, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.251212, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.439506, "worst_return": -0.129272, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.132336, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.151302, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.777777, "worst_return": -0.297256, "sufficient": false }, { 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36.010087, "activity_lines": [ 7.057047, 7.085778, 6.820383, 6.39416 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.92, "volume": 14292050, "typical_volume": 34252457.1, "trend": 5.920682, "fair_value": 6.74287, "relative_strength": 24.11757, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.911286, "energy": 27.248348, "activity_lines": [ 6.983195, 7.063628, 6.874519, 6.463156 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.63, "volume": 14443072, "typical_volume": 34036030.9, "trend": 5.986024, "fair_value": 6.765979, "relative_strength": 17.848117, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.022531, "energy": 21.956861, "activity_lines": [ 6.86, 6.987093, 6.889948, 6.508919 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.19, "volume": 16853897, "typical_volume": 34060338.55, "trend": 6.037025, "fair_value": 6.787038, "relative_strength": 12.008029, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.154803, "energy": 10.743406, "activity_lines": [ 6.634, 6.835414, 6.853719, 6.522079 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.38, "volume": 12427974, "typical_volume": 34514433.05, "trend": 6.097941, "fair_value": 6.809129, "relative_strength": 12.472049, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.505233, "energy": 17.616371, "activity_lines": [ 6.51, 6.728297, 6.828299, 6.544206 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }