{ "ticker": { "uuid": "07a5f583-44fa-48d3-9846-6ba980c2d7df", "symbol": "EX17", "name": "iShares V Public Limited Company - iShares MSCI Poland UCITS ETF", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.392, "architecture_energy": 89.832, "architecture_maturity": 46.416, "architecture_confidence": 75.469, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.1, "rotation_up": 81.83, "upward_expansion": 95.87, "deceleration": 42.1, "rotation_down": 10.35, "downward_expansion": 20.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.552666, 33.711, 32.932119, 32.15271 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 36.040001, "trend_reference": 31.198, "distance_from_trend": 0.155202, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.732865, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.58537, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.150806, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.202536, "excess_performance": 0.028289, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.155202, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06967, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.58537, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120543, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.021508, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033121, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.202536, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033659, "annualized_volatility": 0.222895, "from_high_reference": -0.00442, "from_low_reference": 0.523568 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.198, "fair_value_reference": 22.732865, "structural_low": 27.25, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.017721, "positive_rate": 0.648649, "directional_follow_through": 0.648649, "median_excess_return": -0.008364, "regime_survival": 0.783784, "best_return": 0.15932, "worst_return": -0.132587, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.061318, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.008708, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.143821, "worst_return": -0.076935, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.143299, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.015162, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.172908, "worst_return": -0.100405, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"fair_value": 22.267929, "relative_strength": -3.977531, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.821044, "energy": 46.495108, "activity_lines": [ 32.607666, 32.493, 31.847143, 31.234022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.494999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1530.5, "trend": 30.5725, "fair_value": 22.373962, "relative_strength": -3.960063, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.033692, "energy": 37.334749, "activity_lines": [ 32.562666, 32.53009, 31.980381, 31.367957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.77, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 595.1, "trend": 30.769333, "fair_value": 22.484846, "relative_strength": -1.47888, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.531114, "energy": 55.955746, "activity_lines": [ 32.988, 32.774636, 32.2245, 31.574247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.654999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 497.8, "trend": 30.9595, "fair_value": 22.603199, "relative_strength": 1.12878, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.554559, "energy": 75.51573, "activity_lines": [ 33.646999, 33.137272, 32.527143, 31.824935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.040001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 497.8, "trend": 31.198, "fair_value": 22.732865, "relative_strength": 2.150806, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.392161, "energy": 89.831513, "activity_lines": [ 34.552666, 33.711, 32.932119, 32.15271 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }