{ "ticker": { "uuid": "07a67cfa-c5b8-4919-a07d-79c9017c5d53", "symbol": "H13", "name": "Ho Bee Land Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.984, "architecture_energy": 36.609, "architecture_maturity": 47.511, "architecture_confidence": 83.376, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.24, "rotation_up": 21.36, "upward_expansion": 4.4, "deceleration": 57.6, "rotation_down": 47.91, "downward_expansion": 75.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.034667, 2.038545, 2.059087, 2.08368 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.04, "trend_reference": 2.134571, "distance_from_trend": -0.044304, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.882546, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.083639, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.661471, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.126217, "excess_performance": -0.281052, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.044304, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011974, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.083639, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050391, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.196615, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120223, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.126217, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.082943, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 322800, "relative_activity": 1.074585, "balance": 1.082943, "dry_up": 0.544533, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029789, "annualized_volatility": 0.148982, "from_high_reference": -0.174569, "from_low_reference": 0.02874 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.134571, "fair_value_reference": 1.882546, "structural_low": 2.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.014706, "positive_rate": 0.310345, "directional_follow_through": 0.62069, "median_excess_return": -0.017586, "regime_survival": 0.896552, "best_return": 0.206061, "worst_return": -0.086957, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.033499, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.0427, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.099353, "worst_return": -0.112195, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.023023, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.020571, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.158337, "worst_return": -0.15985, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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-17.548315, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.401462, "energy": 64.845989, "activity_lines": [ 2.045333, 2.064905, 2.078614, 2.113077 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.02, "volume": 89800, "typical_volume": 410730.0, "trend": 2.146145, "fair_value": 1.87907, "relative_strength": -18.989235, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.695379, "energy": 65.066054, "activity_lines": [ 2.034667, 2.054364, 2.071521, 2.104703 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.01, "volume": 112900, "typical_volume": 352830.0, "trend": 2.141509, "fair_value": 1.879958, "relative_strength": -20.068299, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.056889, "energy": 61.055205, "activity_lines": [ 2.025333, 2.043818, 2.064695, 2.095919 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.05, "volume": 128800, "typical_volume": 316280.0, "trend": 2.138207, "fair_value": 1.881224, "relative_strength": -18.6659, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.747183, "energy": 40.30673, "activity_lines": [ 2.032, 2.041636, 2.062201, 2.090016 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.04, "volume": 322800, "typical_volume": 300395.0, "trend": 2.134571, "fair_value": 1.882546, "relative_strength": -19.661471, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.983689, "energy": 36.608828, "activity_lines": [ 2.034667, 2.038545, 2.059087, 2.08368 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }