{ "ticker": { "uuid": "07aaf380-cfc6-4370-a2c3-d2ebeb9b79f6", "symbol": "301066", "name": "Hangzhou Wensli Silk Culture Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.845, "architecture_energy": 54.185, "architecture_maturity": 65.5, "architecture_confidence": 93.019, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.57, "rotation_up": 22.61, "upward_expansion": 8.58, "deceleration": 59.47, "rotation_down": 57.46, "downward_expansion": 81.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.724667, 11.884113, 12.894964, 13.614381 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.3, "trend_reference": 15.013115, "distance_from_trend": -0.180716, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.426356, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.083891, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.795878, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.384384, "excess_performance": -0.391784, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.180716, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087585, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.083891, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.267977, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.227959, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039841, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.384384, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.633716, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18828755, "relative_activity": 0.865397, "balance": 0.633716, "dry_up": 0.927205, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097695, "annualized_volatility": 0.417385, "from_high_reference": -0.52473, "from_low_reference": 0.175908 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.013115, "fair_value_reference": 13.426356, "structural_low": 10.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.05288, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.02376, "regime_survival": 0.933333, "best_return": 0.136029, "worst_return": -0.18637, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.186204, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.085021, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.308343, "worst_return": -0.312545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.097936, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.165211, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.055034, "worst_return": -0.250906, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.130531, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.167206, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.154545, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.368384, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.063631, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": 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"direction": -77.453141, "energy": 87.063025, "activity_lines": [ 11.735644, 12.549898, 13.494632, 14.34593 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.6, "volume": 18119499, "typical_volume": 21906297.35, "trend": 15.409116, "fair_value": 13.476133, "relative_strength": -32.26316, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.145812, "energy": 85.252609, "activity_lines": [ 11.284003, 12.042865, 13.172997, 14.019449 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.09, "volume": 23893093, "typical_volume": 21894989.6, "trend": 15.259449, "fair_value": 13.45139, "relative_strength": -20.842825, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.741409, "energy": 59.954241, "activity_lines": [ 11.484, 11.912913, 13.016932, 13.805313 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.3, "volume": 18828755, "typical_volume": 21757363.95, "trend": 15.013115, "fair_value": 13.426356, "relative_strength": -22.795878, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.844724, "energy": 54.185308, "activity_lines": [ 11.724667, 11.884113, 12.894964, 13.614381 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }