{ "ticker": { "uuid": "07b18d37-29e6-4cce-a2af-ce9340712367", "symbol": "600707", "name": "Caihong Display Devices Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 14.903, "architecture_energy": 26.121, "architecture_maturity": 93.157, "architecture_confidence": 77.218, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.77, "rotation_up": 18.36, "upward_expansion": 49.84, "deceleration": 91.13, "rotation_down": 48.6, "downward_expansion": 29.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.039333, 10.359921, 10.312227, 9.552081 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.48, "trend_reference": 8.602833, "distance_from_trend": 0.101963, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.104391, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.334386, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 26.613605, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.410714, "excess_performance": 0.453918, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.101963, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.230282, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.334386, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000167, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.266136, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012649, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.410714, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.029799, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 634256786, "relative_activity": 1.033081, "balance": 1.029799, "dry_up": 1.0478, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.252642, "annualized_volatility": 0.94632, "from_high_reference": -0.408609, "from_low_reference": 0.745856 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.602833, "fair_value_reference": 7.104391, "structural_low": 5.46, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.02455, "positive_rate": 0.315789, "directional_follow_through": 0.315789, "median_excess_return": -0.015794, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.436295, "worst_return": -0.378223, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.030833, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.037233, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.179217, "worst_return": -0.109405, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.098592, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.169647, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.247834, "worst_return": -0.271246, "sufficient": true 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"modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.242617, "energy": 58.418824, "activity_lines": [ 12.987855, 12.12938, 10.468941, 9.43279 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.5, "volume": 742964834, "typical_volume": 551589926.15, "trend": 8.377833, "fair_value": 7.058686, "relative_strength": 34.816978, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.386785, "energy": 45.906767, "activity_lines": [ 11.995294, 11.779042, 10.506155, 9.511855 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.68, "volume": 648934426, "typical_volume": 570488538.55, "trend": 8.4555, "fair_value": 7.07766, "relative_strength": 20.884695, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.913693, "energy": 19.09493, "activity_lines": [ 10.75, 11.267505, 10.453179, 9.531349 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.8, "volume": 547016901, "typical_volume": 589142753.5, "trend": 8.503166, "fair_value": 7.084904, "relative_strength": 7.839839, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.364816, "energy": 20.16178, "activity_lines": [ 9.409333, 10.631508, 10.305917, 9.489059 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.48, "volume": 634256786, "typical_volume": 613946690.7, "trend": 8.602833, "fair_value": 7.104391, "relative_strength": 26.613605, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.902516, "energy": 26.121352, "activity_lines": [ 9.039333, 10.359921, 10.312227, 9.552081 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }