{ "ticker": { "uuid": "07b4139a-df03-4e22-9e0e-14f2352a0c4e", "symbol": "SUSW", "name": "iShares MSCI World SRI UCITS ETF EUR (Acc)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.07, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.922, "architecture_energy": 53.804, "architecture_maturity": 63.772, "architecture_confidence": 68.709, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.28, "rotation_up": 47.28, "upward_expansion": 70.52, "deceleration": 85.48, "rotation_down": 27.61, "downward_expansion": 20.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.7632, 13.767673, 13.536914, 13.252082 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.032, "trend_reference": 12.936867, "distance_from_trend": 0.084652, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.378596, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.233193, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.636407, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.133258, "excess_performance": -0.037634, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.084652, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044542, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.233193, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051337, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.036364, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004066, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.133258, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.739299, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 197525, "relative_activity": 1.066005, "balance": 1.739299, "dry_up": 1.162952, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020009, "annualized_volatility": 0.116605, "from_high_reference": -0.000143, "from_low_reference": 0.231742 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.936867, "fair_value_reference": 11.378596, "structural_low": 11.65, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.008904, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.000216, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.103844, "worst_return": -0.056345, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.038914, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.009997, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.097438, "worst_return": -0.174906, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.093655, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.034241, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.12504, "worst_return": -0.066242, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002277, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017972, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.023938, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002662, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023904, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"close": 13.674, "volume": 283417, "typical_volume": 191060.45, "trend": 12.7934, "fair_value": 11.298763, "relative_strength": -3.146388, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.546629, "energy": 76.206077, "activity_lines": [ 13.812, 13.708, 13.337562, 13.078998 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.666, "volume": 187594, "typical_volume": 188326.5, "trend": 12.843533, "fair_value": 11.323994, "relative_strength": -2.93263, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.051904, "energy": 63.463558, "activity_lines": [ 13.759733, 13.723345, 13.403333, 13.135295 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.51, "volume": 193419, "typical_volume": 187474.65, "trend": 12.888267, "fair_value": 11.349494, "relative_strength": -4.568704, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.585025, "energy": 48.302193, "activity_lines": [ 13.665867, 13.700073, 13.44839, 13.178292 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.032, "volume": 197525, "typical_volume": 185294.7, "trend": 12.936867, "fair_value": 11.378596, "relative_strength": -3.636407, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.922282, "energy": 53.804029, "activity_lines": [ 13.7632, 13.767673, 13.536914, 13.252082 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }