{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "07b4bcef-ada7-42d0-8dcc-5db58a3b22a0",
    "symbol": "BSEP",
    "name": "Innovator U.S. Equity Buffer ETF - September",
    "exchange": "CBOE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 66.485,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 87.753,
    "architecture_energy": 87.132,
    "architecture_maturity": 45.781,
    "architecture_confidence": 82.842,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 4.89,
        "rotation_up": 66.2,
        "upward_expansion": 94.42,
        "deceleration": 44.43,
        "rotation_down": 26.52,
        "downward_expansion": 18.76
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        53.30712,
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        52.53259,
        51.789451
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 53.8,
    "trend_reference": 50.943553,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.056071,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 43.409448,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.239362,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -3.749236,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.081407,
    "excess_performance": -0.044218,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.056071,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.025807,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.239362,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.00037,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.037492,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.00114,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.081407,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 3.704279,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 54899,
      "relative_activity": 2.520471,
      "balance": 3.704279,
      "dry_up": 1.108603,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.009332,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.078242,
      "from_high_reference": 0.0,
      "from_low_reference": 0.161643
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 50.943553,
      "fair_value_reference": 43.409448,
      "structural_low": 46.94,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 43,
        "median_return": 0.010207,
        "positive_rate": 0.72093,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.72093,
        "median_excess_return": -0.00248,
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        "best_return": 0.051074,
        "worst_return": -0.045948,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 15,
        "median_return": 0.03642,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
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        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
        "best_return": 0.088517,
        "worst_return": -0.02275,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 9,
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        "directional_follow_through": 0.888889,
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        "worst_return": -0.089018,
        "sufficient": true
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      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
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        "regime_survival": 0.75,
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        "worst_return": -0.058632,
        "sufficient": false
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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      {
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 21848.5,
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        "fair_value": 43.054323,
        "relative_strength": -1.802631,
        "stage": 2,
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        "energy": 86.083622,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 21212.55,
        "trend": 50.67752,
        "fair_value": 43.165853,
        "relative_strength": -1.282005,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "direction": 65.922279,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 53.318,
        "volume": 16485,
        "typical_volume": 19984.1,
        "trend": 50.810787,
        "fair_value": 43.285699,
        "relative_strength": -1.367349,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 78.575129,
        "energy": 85.426194,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 53.8,
        "volume": 54899,
        "typical_volume": 21781.25,
        "trend": 50.943553,
        "fair_value": 43.409448,
        "relative_strength": -3.749236,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 87.752625,
        "energy": 87.13193,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}