{ "ticker": { "uuid": "07bc7954-fe60-4b84-b4b4-2e1ac5a7449a", "symbol": "688272", "name": "Beijing Fjr Optoelectronic Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.651, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.083, "architecture_energy": 74.704, "architecture_maturity": 19.198, "architecture_confidence": 83.93, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.53, "rotation_up": 11.17, "upward_expansion": 19.46, "deceleration": 34.22, "rotation_down": 73.98, "downward_expansion": 90.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.461333, 31.131273, 34.665667, 35.882538 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 29.190001, "trend_reference": 36.036, "distance_from_trend": -0.189977, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.251987, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.255377, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.114025, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.020798, "excess_performance": 0.022406, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.189977, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056227, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.255377, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.776234, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.08114, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.475856, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.020798, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.208623, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8338211, "relative_activity": 0.661891, "balance": 0.208623, "dry_up": 0.813536, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.215827, "annualized_volatility": 0.900736, "from_high_reference": -0.483363, "from_low_reference": 0.325613 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.036, "fair_value_reference": 23.251987, "structural_low": 22.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.064743, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.052107, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.015801, "worst_return": -0.313869, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.247713, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.106302, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.247713, "worst_return": 0.247713, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.225897, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.10077, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.225897, "worst_return": 0.225897, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.863476, 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"2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.148727, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074773, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.125871, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023327, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004109, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046823, "active": false }, { 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"close": 25.379999, "volume": 11193130, "typical_volume": 13241754.15, "trend": 36.299, "fair_value": 23.136602, "relative_strength": -17.63737, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -48.793547, "energy": 48.542101, "activity_lines": [ 31.438666, 33.601818, 36.815952, 37.050322 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.16, "volume": 8638951, "typical_volume": 12763858.6, "trend": 36.151667, "fair_value": 23.180897, "relative_strength": -18.5805, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.905671, "energy": 68.280287, "activity_lines": [ 28.384, 31.887454, 35.525333, 36.331677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.190001, "volume": 8338211, "typical_volume": 12597553.6, "trend": 36.036, "fair_value": 23.251987, "relative_strength": -8.114025, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.0834, "energy": 74.704378, "activity_lines": [ 27.461333, 31.131273, 34.665667, 35.882538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }