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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 48.404, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 71.355, "architecture_energy": 89.972, "architecture_maturity": 14.69, "architecture_confidence": 67.698, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.99, "rotation_up": 85.12, "upward_expansion": 100.0, "deceleration": 39.0, "rotation_down": 8.0, "downward_expansion": 22.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 2702.923991, 2680.419913, 2642.90262, 2630.992571 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 2703.48999, "trend_reference": 2615.546566, "distance_from_trend": 0.033623, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2387.574443, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.132317, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.583978, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.07444, "excess_performance": 0.129107, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.033623, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008937, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.132317, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027902, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.01584, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119909, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.07444, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.017668, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.017668, "dry_up": 0.069832, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003858, "annualized_volatility": 0.099051, "from_high_reference": -0.012071, "from_low_reference": 0.07444 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2615.546566, "fair_value_reference": 2387.574443, "structural_low": 2516.184814, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.21875, "directional_follow_through": 0.21875, "median_excess_return": -0.014611, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.098165, "worst_return": -0.073365, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.000374, "positive_rate": 0.916667, "directional_follow_through": 0.916667, "median_excess_return": -0.018046, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.11153, "worst_return": -0.073365, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.042725, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.031525, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.111927, "worst_return": -0.07411, "sufficient": 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2622.295703, 2602.36234, 2599.986433, 2599.347229 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2695.0, "volume": 182, "typical_volume": 36.7, "trend": 2599.657511, "fair_value": 2369.041336, "relative_strength": 1.023056, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.732446, "energy": 77.067775, "activity_lines": [ 2652.314518, 2621.157972, 2608.475119, 2605.738006 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2703.48999, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": 37.2, "trend": 2603.655062, "fair_value": 2373.674613, "relative_strength": 1.389963, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.574988, "energy": 97.203192, "activity_lines": [ 2677.312614, 2639.380344, 2617.50343, 2612.436876 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2703.48999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 36.05, "trend": 2607.618896, "fair_value": 2378.307889, "relative_strength": 1.98548, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.002, "energy": 94.750588, "activity_lines": [ 2693.893994, 2655.331459, 2626.222367, 2618.877839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2703.48999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 35.8, "trend": 2611.582731, "fair_value": 2382.941166, "relative_strength": 1.386009, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.416001, "energy": 90.695395, "activity_lines": [ 2702.058659, 2669.011315, 2634.813508, 2625.063071 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2703.48999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 35.8, "trend": 2615.546566, "fair_value": 2387.574443, "relative_strength": 1.583978, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.354864, "energy": 89.972238, "activity_lines": [ 2702.923991, 2680.419913, 2642.90262, 2630.992571 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }