{ "ticker": { "uuid": "07c433ee-bdd0-45b2-afbf-3a09dc0bca07", "symbol": "XLP", "name": "State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 68.675, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -12.004, "architecture_energy": 6.754, "architecture_maturity": 30.687, "architecture_confidence": 66.942, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 68.11, "rotation_up": 31.36, "upward_expansion": 25.01, "deceleration": 56.12, "rotation_down": 30.45, "downward_expansion": 25.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 1467.672005, 1470.895508, 1464.129009, 1465.484049 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1452.0, "trend_reference": 1467.202653, "distance_from_trend": -0.010362, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1438.415547, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.009444, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.666121, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.03369, "excess_performance": 0.020976, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010362, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012288, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.009444, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0068, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.026661, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09316, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.03369, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.47887, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 348, "relative_activity": 0.304515, "balance": 0.47887, "dry_up": 0.844855, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030265, "annualized_volatility": 0.139832, "from_high_reference": -0.072317, "from_low_reference": 0.060159 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1467.202653, "fair_value_reference": 1438.415547, "structural_low": 1390.394444, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.009421, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.00261, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.04473, "worst_return": -0.091105, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.038298, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.032176, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.133593, "worst_return": -0.070622, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.078902, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.046416, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.139652, "worst_return": -0.113231, 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"activity_lines": [ 1473.052083, 1465.718213, 1460.089283, 1462.829046 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1500.0, "volume": 519, "typical_volume": 1206.15, "trend": 1461.558927, "fair_value": 1434.692024, "relative_strength": -0.118913, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.055492, "energy": 49.449714, "activity_lines": [ 1482.945874, 1472.853937, 1463.411798, 1465.487387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1472.0, "volume": 644, "typical_volume": 1156.3, "trend": 1463.389237, "fair_value": 1436.059552, "relative_strength": -1.277276, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.191612, "energy": 37.64935, "activity_lines": [ 1481.694661, 1473.900146, 1464.250619, 1466.161004 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1466.77002, "volume": 2351, "typical_volume": 1165.05, "trend": 1465.873596, "fair_value": 1437.17337, "relative_strength": -2.060189, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.942437, "energy": 13.313699, "activity_lines": [ 1476.504004, 1473.811821, 1464.772739, 1466.379119 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1452.0, "volume": 348, "typical_volume": 1142.8, "trend": 1467.202653, "fair_value": 1438.415547, "relative_strength": -2.666121, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.003844, "energy": 6.754451, "activity_lines": [ 1467.672005, 1470.895508, 1464.129009, 1465.484049 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }