{ "ticker": { "uuid": "07c441c0-d894-4fbf-aae2-f4e3c1b953a0", "symbol": "XPO", "name": "XPO Logistics Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 67.64, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 11.535, "architecture_energy": 6.625, "architecture_maturity": 15.862, "architecture_confidence": 60.805, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.6, "rotation_up": 29.94, "upward_expansion": 48.63, "deceleration": 74.87, "rotation_down": 24.27, "downward_expansion": 26.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 206.248667, 207.320364, 209.121, 206.781677 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 202.58, "trend_reference": 200.116333, "distance_from_trend": 0.012311, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 131.398269, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.541725, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.223179, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.005059, "excess_performance": -0.130684, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.012311, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.129342, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.541725, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178909, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.052232, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15415, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.005059, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.685126, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4320814, "relative_activity": 0.650432, "balance": 1.685126, "dry_up": 0.780652, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079987, "annualized_volatility": 0.360229, "from_high_reference": -0.126998, "from_low_reference": 0.717071 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 200.116333, "fair_value_reference": 131.398269, "structural_low": 177.56, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.017026, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.022101, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.317552, "worst_return": -0.276328, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.104545, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.044824, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.399711, "worst_return": -0.348396, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.206381, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.055366, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.06176, "worst_return": -0.363181, "sufficient": true }, { 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203.419828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 215.02, "volume": 4619463, "typical_volume": 7017998.6, "trend": 193.792333, "fair_value": 128.831474, "relative_strength": 18.157791, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.653744, "energy": 16.522097, "activity_lines": [ 208.535333, 209.985636, 209.608429, 204.953871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 213.01, "volume": 4716706, "typical_volume": 6754679.0, "trend": 196.182, "fair_value": 129.737949, "relative_strength": 17.111258, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.424561, "energy": 22.69648, "activity_lines": [ 210.859333, 210.553636, 210.26719, 206.19372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 200.97, "volume": 7086472, "typical_volume": 6767486.55, "trend": 198.254667, "fair_value": 130.569038, "relative_strength": 8.649883, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.011137, "energy": 9.016507, "activity_lines": [ 208.269333, 208.772909, 209.663286, 206.502624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 202.58, "volume": 4320814, "typical_volume": 6642991.45, "trend": 200.116333, "fair_value": 131.398269, "relative_strength": 5.223179, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.534554, "energy": 6.624759, "activity_lines": [ 206.248667, 207.320364, 209.121, 206.781677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }