{ "ticker": { "uuid": "07ccd98a-c0f5-41f6-bb4f-b93eebaed718", "symbol": "PDSB", "name": "PDS Biotechnology Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.057, "architecture_energy": 46.517, "architecture_maturity": 14.663, "architecture_confidence": 76.453, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.57, "rotation_up": 16.45, "upward_expansion": 24.48, "deceleration": 50.6, "rotation_down": 64.43, "downward_expansion": 54.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.727253, 0.781296, 0.89953, 0.888942 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.7753, "trend_reference": 0.86945, "distance_from_trend": -0.108287, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.436609, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.681812, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.099159, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.084336, "excess_performance": -0.103118, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.108287, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015137, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.681812, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11807, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.260992, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.255188, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.084336, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.473082, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1346301, "relative_activity": 0.358026, "balance": 0.473082, "dry_up": 0.304642, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.254695, "annualized_volatility": 1.146529, "from_high_reference": -0.499806, "from_low_reference": 0.529795 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.86945, "fair_value_reference": 2.436609, "structural_low": 0.5068, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.124431, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.061578, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.132302, "worst_return": -0.127061, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.240322, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.266697, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.063574, "worst_return": -0.417071, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.291494, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.26481, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.104811, "worst_return": -0.478177, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.224638, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.24, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.048387, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.018349, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.263324, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020062, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.157407, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.287313, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.172876, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.137805, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 5.68, "volume": 4463315, "typical_volume": 3664439.3, "trend": 6.599667, "fair_value": 6.593333, "relative_strength": -27.73421, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.168785, "energy": 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.601225, "energy": 21.151206, "activity_lines": [ 0.860493, 0.953816, 0.977291, 0.932434 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.7349, "volume": 1513763, "typical_volume": 3872298.4, "trend": 0.891603, "fair_value": 2.523514, "relative_strength": -29.891245, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.953129, "energy": 32.865581, "activity_lines": [ 0.804093, 0.898153, 0.959625, 0.921991 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.6814, "volume": 876534, "typical_volume": 3850948.2, "trend": 0.884177, "fair_value": 2.493074, "relative_strength": -33.004505, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.965812, "energy": 48.653698, "activity_lines": [ 0.750867, 0.842127, 0.936578, 0.908429 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.6861, "volume": 845632, "typical_volume": 3846425.2, "trend": 0.879273, "fair_value": 2.462729, "relative_strength": -32.051396, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.541658, "energy": 52.715852, "activity_lines": [ 0.717447, 0.798931, 0.913938, 0.89565 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.7753, "volume": 1346301, "typical_volume": 3760345.75, "trend": 0.86945, "fair_value": 2.436609, "relative_strength": -26.099159, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.057329, "energy": 46.516717, "activity_lines": [ 0.727253, 0.781296, 0.89953, 0.888942 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }