{ "ticker": { "uuid": "07cd8f7d-c838-4492-b3f4-9a5a7fde58b3", "symbol": "BGI-UN", "name": "Brookfield Global Infrastructure Securities Income Fund", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 55.588, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.688, "architecture_energy": 50.34, "architecture_maturity": 6.022, "architecture_confidence": 68.431, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.58, "rotation_up": 10.93, "upward_expansion": 7.58, "deceleration": 44.95, "rotation_down": 73.04, "downward_expansion": 78.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.699333, 6.860577, 6.870158, 6.908105 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.66, "trend_reference": 7.012515, "distance_from_trend": -0.050269, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.878224, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.365251, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.434485, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.106215, "excess_performance": -0.226636, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.050269, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002565, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.365251, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136371, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.124345, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087166, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.106215, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.546947, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 45500, "relative_activity": 0.813299, "balance": 0.546947, "dry_up": 1.104656, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038344, "annualized_volatility": 0.246315, "from_high_reference": -0.149787, "from_low_reference": 0.225444 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.012515, "fair_value_reference": 4.878224, "structural_low": 6.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.002262, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": 0.003211, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.073733, "worst_return": -0.079059, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.004197, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.013617, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.172507, "worst_return": -0.143411, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.052214, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.064532, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.053253, "worst_return": -0.122916, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005155, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046559, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.595292, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111695, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030963, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": 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"relative_strength": -9.780624, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.635694, "energy": 28.9019, "activity_lines": [ 6.869347, 6.969112, 6.909049, 6.959258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.68, "volume": 34700, "typical_volume": 61615.0, "trend": 7.048035, "fair_value": 4.855865, "relative_strength": -9.439799, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.921286, "energy": 40.894701, "activity_lines": [ 6.767333, 6.916282, 6.889349, 6.933139 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.66, "volume": 45500, "typical_volume": 55945.0, "trend": 7.012515, "fair_value": 4.878224, "relative_strength": -12.434485, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.687906, "energy": 50.3395, "activity_lines": [ 6.699333, 6.860577, 6.870158, 6.908105 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }