{ "ticker": { "uuid": "07cf6b32-b1f1-44c0-bef9-441a2025af32", "symbol": "CBEU5", "name": "UBS BBG Euro Area Liquid Corp 1-5 UCITS ETF EUR dis", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.411, "architecture_energy": 22.618, "architecture_maturity": 49.378, "architecture_confidence": 75.594, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.31, "rotation_up": 28.78, "upward_expansion": 56.62, "deceleration": 87.01, "rotation_down": 31.72, "downward_expansion": 20.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.181733, 13.191055, 13.176076, 13.160393 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 13.212, "trend_reference": 13.152189, "distance_from_trend": 0.004548, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.618334, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.047048, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.878696, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.00166, "excess_performance": -0.169231, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004548, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002212, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.047048, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005346, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.138787, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02061, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.00166, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.345776, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47020, "relative_activity": 0.921497, "balance": 1.345776, "dry_up": 0.9694, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.004285, "annualized_volatility": 0.025609, "from_high_reference": -0.002717, "from_low_reference": 0.020705 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.152189, "fair_value_reference": 12.618334, "structural_low": 12.944, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.002485, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.004654, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.018144, "worst_return": -0.011051, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.008882, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.042469, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.026112, "worst_return": -0.00878, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.018413, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.110515, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.037215, "worst_return": -0.008088, 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13.204267, 13.178255, 13.145724, 13.142529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 13.234, "volume": 2595, "typical_volume": 90620.75, "trend": 13.139576, "fair_value": 12.568662, "relative_strength": -14.267266, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.108244, "energy": 67.525322, "activity_lines": [ 13.2168, 13.192145, 13.154962, 13.148889 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.208, "volume": 48739, "typical_volume": 90556.2, "trend": 13.143516, "fair_value": 12.579098, "relative_strength": -13.691019, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.41979, "energy": 63.51931, "activity_lines": [ 13.218533, 13.199127, 13.161619, 13.153304 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.166, "volume": 34536, "typical_volume": 88589.2, "trend": 13.146253, "fair_value": 12.589066, "relative_strength": -12.353932, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.709984, "energy": 49.342231, "activity_lines": [ 13.202933, 13.196582, 13.164314, 13.154754 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.154, "volume": 57143, "typical_volume": 54380.4, "trend": 13.148328, "fair_value": 12.598745, "relative_strength": -11.917207, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.588169, "energy": 22.681371, "activity_lines": [ 13.184667, 13.191345, 13.166171, 13.155254 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.166, "volume": 59158, "typical_volume": 53449.5, "trend": 13.150016, "fair_value": 12.608143, "relative_strength": -12.033993, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.945912, "energy": 19.793718, "activity_lines": [ 13.172933, 13.187236, 13.169171, 13.156394 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.212, "volume": 47020, "typical_volume": 51025.65, "trend": 13.152189, "fair_value": 12.618334, "relative_strength": -13.878696, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.410627, "energy": 22.61829, "activity_lines": [ 13.181733, 13.191055, 13.176076, 13.160393 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }