{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "07d31955-6545-4fff-8ad6-b322eb1669c8",
    "symbol": "RTC",
    "name": "RealTech AG",
    "exchange": "GER",
    "country": "DE",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GDAXI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 59.952,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 0.845,
    "architecture_energy": 4.418,
    "architecture_maturity": 24.664,
    "architecture_confidence": 57.744,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 66.55,
        "rotation_up": 24.15,
        "upward_expansion": 28.62,
        "deceleration": 71.11,
        "rotation_down": 32.53,
        "downward_expansion": 21.29
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        1.127333,
        1.124909,
        1.153476,
        1.150376
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 1.13,
    "trend_reference": 1.125833,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.003701,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 1.074295,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.051853,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -3.288732,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.177083,
    "excess_performance": 0.112444,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.003701,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.052509,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.051853,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.106608,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.032887,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.228014,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.177083,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.714919,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 2109,
      "relative_activity": 0.380209,
      "balance": 0.714919,
      "dry_up": 0.363037,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.085092,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.475368,
      "from_high_reference": -0.22069,
      "from_low_reference": 0.241758
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 1.125833,
      "fair_value_reference": 1.074295,
      "structural_low": 0.96,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": -0.079428,
        "positive_rate": 0.166667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.166667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.083486,
        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
        "best_return": 0.073826,
        "worst_return": -0.165289,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.22,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.203728,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
        "best_return": -0.109244,
        "worst_return": -0.415493,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.362676,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.375431,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.235294,
        "worst_return": -0.41,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.3,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.311179,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.015228,
        "worst_return": -0.306338,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-09-06",
        "end": "2024-09-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.009615,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-10-04",
        "end": "2024-12-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.061856,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-12-27",
        "end": "2025-01-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.045872,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-01-24",
        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.009009,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-21",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.068966,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.028571,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-05-16",
        "end": "2025-06-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.009804,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-06-20",
        "end": "2025-08-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.089109,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-08-29",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.099057,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.138298,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-01-16",
        "end": "2026-03-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.118812,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.027523,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2026-05-29",
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        "return": -0.141791,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-08-07",
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        "return": -0.058333,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
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        "typical_volume": 27485.1,
        "trend": 1.054,
        "fair_value": 1.096282,
        "relative_strength": 19.512688,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.50502,
        "energy": 71.975433,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.281333,
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          1.150071,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "volume": 1071,
        "typical_volume": 27393.65,
        "trend": 1.061333,
        "fair_value": 1.096859,
        "relative_strength": 21.840428,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.309075,
        "energy": 57.812286,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.286,
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          1.167833,
          1.117366
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 1.17,
        "volume": 3734,
        "typical_volume": 26741.7,
        "trend": 1.065667,
        "fair_value": 1.09641,
        "relative_strength": 7.012046,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 54.187632,
        "energy": 35.918226,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.243333,
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          1.173571,
          1.124376
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "volume": 2860,
        "typical_volume": 24469.8,
        "trend": 1.069667,
        "fair_value": 1.096538,
        "relative_strength": 4.164566,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 40.17854,
        "energy": 25.24017,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.205333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 1.2,
        "volume": 454,
        "typical_volume": 24149.55,
        "trend": 1.078833,
        "fair_value": 1.096474,
        "relative_strength": 9.918241,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 20.701863,
        "activity_lines": [
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          1.138226
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 1.13,
        "volume": 24,
        "typical_volume": 23927.85,
        "trend": 1.084,
        "fair_value": 1.094423,
        "relative_strength": 3.932473,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "energy": 21.439899,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "trend": 1.091167,
        "fair_value": 1.091859,
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        "energy": 18.913893,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 1.01,
        "volume": 3670,
        "typical_volume": 22270.4,
        "trend": 1.0935,
        "fair_value": 1.087564,
        "relative_strength": -7.357006,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -11.365379,
        "energy": 18.387745,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.111333,
          1.156727,
          1.172524,
          1.141839
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 1.13,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 21875.4,
        "trend": 1.100667,
        "fair_value": 1.084295,
        "relative_strength": -0.773756,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 5.896981,
        "energy": 16.978621,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.110667,
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          1.144194
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 1.15,
        "volume": 2864,
        "typical_volume": 17137.6,
        "trend": 1.107167,
        "fair_value": 1.081731,
        "relative_strength": 3.697609,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 7.133218,
        "energy": 14.230439,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.118,
          1.139273,
          1.168952,
          1.147376
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 1.15,
        "volume": 638,
        "typical_volume": 5894.6,
        "trend": 1.113667,
        "fair_value": 1.079936,
        "relative_strength": 4.506107,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 6.781914,
        "energy": 14.002659,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.128667,
          1.136364,
          1.167143,
          1.15014
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 1.11,
        "volume": 2789,
        "typical_volume": 5725.3,
        "trend": 1.118833,
        "fair_value": 1.078141,
        "relative_strength": -0.26147,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 5.816969,
        "energy": 6.789934,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.124667,
          1.128364,
          1.161619,
          1.149903
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 1.12,
        "volume": 2519,
        "typical_volume": 5651.9,
        "trend": 1.123833,
        "fair_value": 1.076218,
        "relative_strength": -1.488249,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 16.333217,
        "energy": 9.428926,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.128,
          1.125273,
          1.157143,
          1.149978
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 1.13,
        "volume": 2109,
        "typical_volume": 5546.95,
        "trend": 1.125833,
        "fair_value": 1.074295,
        "relative_strength": -3.288732,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 0.845098,
        "energy": 4.417543,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.127333,
          1.124909,
          1.153476,
          1.150376
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}