{ "ticker": { "uuid": "07d430ce-4a57-4921-b157-8f5c10060f9a", "symbol": "600916", "name": "China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.474, "architecture_energy": 35.626, "architecture_maturity": 80.561, "architecture_confidence": 85.97, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.17, "rotation_up": 27.61, "upward_expansion": 18.51, "deceleration": 46.98, "rotation_down": 33.76, "downward_expansion": 66.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.502, 7.386334, 7.663546, 8.171277 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.77, "trend_reference": 8.824597, "distance_from_trend": -0.119507, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.849227, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.121957, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.82334, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.470708, "excess_performance": -0.427505, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.119507, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027971, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.121957, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103778, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.088233, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027035, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.470708, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.708106, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 241986117, "relative_activity": 1.950659, "balance": 0.708106, "dry_up": 1.374097, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068792, "annualized_volatility": 0.441019, "from_high_reference": -0.476768, "from_low_reference": 0.134307 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.824597, "fair_value_reference": 8.849227, "structural_low": 6.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.011261, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": 0.005069, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.096512, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.025581, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.009154, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.14604, "worst_return": -0.061856, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.040244, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.136435, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.04858, "worst_return": -0.230342, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"close": 7.06, "volume": 119764888, "typical_volume": 157167077.9, "trend": 8.878931, "fair_value": 8.914621, "relative_strength": -14.079667, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.142959, "energy": 67.078974, "activity_lines": [ 7.139781, 7.31307, 7.863564, 8.421974 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.2, "volume": 173973232, "typical_volume": 129686275.8, "trend": 8.849597, "fair_value": 8.890653, "relative_strength": -13.197082, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.307404, "energy": 61.842459, "activity_lines": [ 7.15, 7.258072, 7.748003, 8.313656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.71, "volume": 146122036, "typical_volume": 122484496.4, "trend": 8.837264, "fair_value": 8.8696, "relative_strength": -7.24702, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.13652, "energy": 49.246941, "activity_lines": [ 7.343333, 7.313985, 7.697679, 8.240133 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.77, "volume": 241986117, "typical_volume": 124053516.6, "trend": 8.824597, "fair_value": 8.849227, "relative_strength": -8.82334, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.473768, "energy": 35.625529, "activity_lines": [ 7.502, 7.386334, 7.663546, 8.171277 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }