{ "ticker": { "uuid": "07d9869b-cf6a-4900-b797-9f45aab02d4b", "symbol": "PEAB-B", "name": "Peab AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 66.039, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 2.123, "architecture_energy": 13.398, "architecture_maturity": 11.406, "architecture_confidence": 80.076, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.94, "rotation_up": 39.35, "upward_expansion": 39.25, "deceleration": 32.7, "rotation_down": 18.94, "downward_expansion": 38.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 93.193334, 92.392727, 91.713193, 92.546774 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 94.650002, "trend_reference": 93.251866, "distance_from_trend": 0.014993, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 71.569438, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.322492, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.576461, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.053732, "excess_performance": -0.115227, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014993, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046173, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.322492, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005123, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.015765, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001392, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.053732, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.241243, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 813003, "relative_activity": 0.789756, "balance": 2.241243, "dry_up": 0.976368, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037832, "annualized_volatility": 0.225271, "from_high_reference": -0.096221, "from_low_reference": 0.370622 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 93.251866, "fair_value_reference": 71.569438, "structural_low": 81.753664, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.005294, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008737, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.196429, "worst_return": -0.121343, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.029107, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.036775, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.269453, "worst_return": -0.154537, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.007416, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.011255, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.497332, "worst_return": -0.398921, "sufficient": true }, { 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-3.266294, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.653191, "energy": 11.328969, "activity_lines": [ 91.216666, 90.496363, 91.4645, 92.404185 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 91.800003, "volume": 1463589, "typical_volume": 1201566.65, "trend": 92.406988, "fair_value": 70.589398, "relative_strength": 0.660437, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.709183, "energy": 17.637793, "activity_lines": [ 91.523334, 90.827273, 91.335367, 92.38821 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 91.75, "volume": 799587, "typical_volume": 1117030.9, "trend": 92.707543, "fair_value": 70.89994, "relative_strength": -1.114974, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.057351, "energy": 15.561514, "activity_lines": [ 91.633334, 91.096364, 91.259764, 92.345823 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 94.199997, "volume": 944256, "typical_volume": 1082292.7, "trend": 93.027719, "fair_value": 71.229391, "relative_strength": -0.038307, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.110131, "energy": 5.969904, "activity_lines": [ 92.406666, 91.747272, 91.460162, 92.442111 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 94.650002, "volume": 813003, "typical_volume": 1029435.95, "trend": 93.251866, "fair_value": 71.569438, "relative_strength": -1.576461, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.12268, "energy": 13.397597, "activity_lines": [ 93.193334, 92.392727, 91.713193, 92.546774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }