{ "ticker": { "uuid": "07d9cf0b-dcdd-4c1e-b062-b80616d7f8e1", "symbol": "ZUARI", "name": "Zuari Agro Chemicals Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 3.463, "architecture_energy": 6.072, "architecture_maturity": 20.839, "architecture_confidence": 47.901, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.06, "rotation_up": 29.59, "upward_expansion": 29.24, "deceleration": 59.5, "rotation_down": 34.13, "downward_expansion": 24.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 229.124666, 230.663273, 229.084096, 226.920215 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 227.550003, "trend_reference": 229.461, "distance_from_trend": -0.008328, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 218.723461, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.040355, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.497487, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.054829, "excess_performance": -0.01112, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008328, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086707, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.040355, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099613, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104975, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079798, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.054829, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.781711, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 467714, "relative_activity": 0.72352, "balance": 0.781711, "dry_up": 0.961361, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072146, "annualized_volatility": 0.345069, "from_high_reference": -0.421802, "from_low_reference": 0.299543 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 229.461, "fair_value_reference": 218.723461, "structural_low": 175.100006, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.056144, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.052465, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.7279, "worst_return": -0.191009, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.104859, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.098996, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.773046, "worst_return": -0.150749, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.004725, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.011686, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.32531, "worst_return": -0.153132, 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false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015239, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.229055, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035963, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00603, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.10498, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": 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after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.547218, "energy": 16.320094, "activity_lines": [ 235.483333, 230.245274, 226.935239, 229.008603 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 232.580002, "volume": 420098, "typical_volume": 743999.8, "trend": 238.361001, "fair_value": 217.313525, "relative_strength": -8.951776, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.08326, "energy": 15.748673, "activity_lines": [ 235.453334, 230.971638, 227.95143, 228.45828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 219.860001, "volume": 384881, "typical_volume": 728827.65, "trend": 235.428, "fair_value": 217.737307, "relative_strength": -11.983616, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.569492, "energy": 8.964406, "activity_lines": [ 230.110667, 229.55891, 227.715573, 227.264667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 234.539993, "volume": 1213163, "typical_volume": 662327.75, "trend": 232.001, "fair_value": 218.22891, "relative_strength": -7.999951, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.080974, "energy": 4.297388, "activity_lines": [ 230.901332, 230.926545, 228.810667, 227.207376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 227.550003, "volume": 467714, "typical_volume": 646442.2, "trend": 229.461, "fair_value": 218.723461, "relative_strength": -10.497487, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.463372, "energy": 6.071554, "activity_lines": [ 229.124666, 230.663273, 229.084096, 226.920215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }