{ "ticker": { "uuid": "07e19cde-e6a4-4fdc-9c40-be0fa7e63ff5", "symbol": "RDN", "name": "Radian Group Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 49.42, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.295, "architecture_energy": 45.137, "architecture_maturity": 18.321, "architecture_confidence": 69.519, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.97, "rotation_up": 62.94, "upward_expansion": 81.19, "deceleration": 57.47, "rotation_down": 16.73, "downward_expansion": 5.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.21, 37.801273, 36.824493, 36.010494 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 36.91, "trend_reference": 34.94988, "distance_from_trend": 0.056084, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.417653, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.174817, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.38056, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.116367, "excess_performance": -0.009258, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056084, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019449, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.174817, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070325, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.053806, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042503, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.116367, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.074698, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6315392, "relative_activity": 1.051115, "balance": 1.074698, "dry_up": 1.175281, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058879, "annualized_volatility": 0.236063, "from_high_reference": -0.100853, "from_low_reference": 0.189373 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.94988, "fair_value_reference": 31.417653, "structural_low": 31.555292, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.011694, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.025863, "regime_survival": 0.576923, "best_return": 0.127584, "worst_return": -0.099266, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.012938, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.040235, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.251205, "worst_return": -0.176765, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.056688, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.001269, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.27814, "worst_return": -0.090027, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-17", "close": 39.38, "volume": 11835438, "typical_volume": 6655126.65, "trend": 34.677521, "fair_value": 31.165235, "relative_strength": 4.853828, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.878017, "energy": 77.788888, "activity_lines": [ 38.118667, 36.864215, 36.048048, 35.349719 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.68, "volume": 4536084, "typical_volume": 6524322.45, "trend": 34.77019, "fair_value": 31.255221, "relative_strength": 3.587834, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.297292, "energy": 73.507246, "activity_lines": [ 38.521333, 37.307388, 36.379109, 35.607943 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.99, "volume": 5558727, "typical_volume": 6439968.7, "trend": 34.890268, "fair_value": 31.342344, "relative_strength": 3.27744, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.443537, "energy": 70.782292, "activity_lines": [ 38.762, 37.770077, 36.715723, 35.880189 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.91, "volume": 6315392, "typical_volume": 6008276.05, "trend": 34.94988, "fair_value": 31.417653, "relative_strength": -5.38056, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.295167, "energy": 45.137151, "activity_lines": [ 38.21, 37.801273, 36.824493, 36.010494 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }