{ "ticker": { "uuid": "07e7c367-e575-4be5-8578-52f53279ba0a", "symbol": "ALKEY", "name": "Keyrus S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 90.664, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 21.221, "architecture_energy": 16.455, "architecture_maturity": 38.479, "architecture_confidence": 51.289, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.35, "rotation_up": 33.67, "upward_expansion": 33.44, "deceleration": 45.59, "rotation_down": 29.61, "downward_expansion": 19.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.778667, 7.803273, 7.587238, 7.508817 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.98, "trend_reference": 7.524667, "distance_from_trend": 0.060512, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.570442, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.0541, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.543547, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.038554, "excess_performance": -0.091866, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060512, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023278, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.0541, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085088, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.025435, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045592, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.038554, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.828731, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5739, "relative_activity": 1.638287, "balance": 0.828731, "dry_up": 1.55386, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0615, "annualized_volatility": 0.337192, "from_high_reference": -0.189024, "from_low_reference": 0.180473 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.524667, "fair_value_reference": 7.570442, "structural_low": 6.78, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.007009, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.00541, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.092409, "worst_return": -0.099057, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.050563, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.092545, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.171617, "worst_return": -0.113636, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.112211, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.095454, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.719219, "worst_return": -0.035354, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.204204, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.217447, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.369637, "worst_return": -0.035354, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029268, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.072319, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002571, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005051, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012755, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005602, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.072022, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021028, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.080605, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02514, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.176301, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058962, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 7.0, "volume": 3737, "typical_volume": 112933.35, "trend": 5.410667, "fair_value": 3.748782, "relative_strength": 38.004576, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.988173, 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7.461333, 7.45557 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.78, "volume": 5487, "typical_volume": 4090.3, "trend": 7.523333, "fair_value": 7.558647, "relative_strength": -1.509395, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.119082, "energy": 30.600124, "activity_lines": [ 7.826667, 7.732364, 7.503905, 7.471183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.64, "volume": 5543, "typical_volume": 4300.5, "trend": 7.513333, "fair_value": 7.563776, "relative_strength": -4.573557, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.670804, "energy": 10.785321, "activity_lines": [ 7.729333, 7.744, 7.53019, 7.47871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.98, "volume": 5739, "typical_volume": 3503.05, "trend": 7.524667, "fair_value": 7.570442, "relative_strength": -2.543547, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.220907, "energy": 16.454963, "activity_lines": [ 7.778667, 7.803273, 7.587238, 7.508817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }