{ "ticker": { "uuid": "07e9e1a0-f56e-4595-84f5-936f5aa84df0", "symbol": "GLIN", "name": "VANECK ETF TR VANECK INDIA GROWTH LEADERS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 69.187, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.43, "architecture_energy": 19.493, "architecture_maturity": 38.184, "architecture_confidence": 73.658, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.26, "rotation_up": 28.65, "upward_expansion": 55.12, "deceleration": 85.46, "rotation_down": 34.25, "downward_expansion": 21.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.27088, 45.465742, 45.364936, 45.055941 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 46.02, "trend_reference": 44.917147, "distance_from_trend": 0.024553, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 44.939682, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.024039, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.181894, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.009684, "excess_performance": -0.135309, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024553, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002498, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.024039, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023137, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.091819, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006517, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.009684, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.776478, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24385, "relative_activity": 0.278565, "balance": 0.776478, "dry_up": 0.429536, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033362, "annualized_volatility": 0.222612, "from_high_reference": -0.04005, "from_low_reference": 0.188994 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.917147, "fair_value_reference": 44.939682, "structural_low": 38.705, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.026999, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": -0.023463, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.04606, "worst_return": -0.111735, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.019446, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.022245, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.069212, "worst_return": -0.217726, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.035512, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.078526, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.162455, "worst_return": -0.266268, 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-8.897238, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.78989, "energy": 25.287997, "activity_lines": [ 45.69308, 45.616038, 45.204192, 45.022152 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.1144, "volume": 58714, "typical_volume": 108759.5, "trend": 44.956173, "fair_value": 44.804134, "relative_strength": -9.470502, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.345832, "energy": 11.173151, "activity_lines": [ 45.072133, 45.378356, 45.164844, 44.963725 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.27, "volume": 32626, "typical_volume": 95824.15, "trend": 44.90448, "fair_value": 44.869811, "relative_strength": -7.806647, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.23469, "energy": 16.3725, "activity_lines": [ 45.016173, 45.358595, 45.236152, 44.983972 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.02, "volume": 24385, "typical_volume": 87538.05, "trend": 44.917147, "fair_value": 44.939682, "relative_strength": -9.181894, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.43007, "energy": 19.493223, "activity_lines": [ 45.27088, 45.465742, 45.364936, 45.055941 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }