{ "ticker": { "uuid": "07eb4728-62fd-46d5-9a0d-ad81889f626f", "symbol": "KILO", "name": "Purpose Gold Bullion Fund", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.166, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.215, "architecture_energy": 50.208, "architecture_maturity": 58.973, "architecture_confidence": 72.574, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.86, "rotation_up": 26.24, "upward_expansion": 19.92, "deceleration": 66.51, "rotation_down": 52.54, "downward_expansion": 74.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.785333, 58.674727, 60.740475, 62.794021 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 61.48, "trend_reference": 65.417666, "distance_from_trend": -0.060193, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 45.662884, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.346389, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.862316, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.135181, "excess_performance": -0.255602, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.060193, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012047, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.346389, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.223092, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.118623, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140679, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.135181, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.421893, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70100, "relative_activity": 0.965964, "balance": 0.421893, "dry_up": 0.732741, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038799, "annualized_volatility": 0.245043, "from_high_reference": -0.22967, "from_low_reference": 0.278436 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 65.417666, "fair_value_reference": 45.662884, "structural_low": 56.299999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.003477, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.005341, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.07325, "worst_return": -0.042473, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.048033, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.052548, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.166063, "worst_return": -0.039026, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.118232, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.048441, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.120556, "worst_return": 0.115907, "sufficient": false }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006702, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023755, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.049059, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03316, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.122684, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.284811, "energy": 87.796071, "activity_lines": [ 58.709332, 60.216544, 62.895618, 64.72402 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 56.939999, "volume": 57100, "typical_volume": 91250.0, "trend": 65.920999, "fair_value": 45.089166, "relative_strength": -16.122814, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.303592, "energy": 88.337741, "activity_lines": [ 58.036666, 59.334726, 62.102618, 64.132709 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 57.490002, "volume": 33200, "typical_volume": 81850.0, "trend": 65.690666, "fair_value": 45.270128, "relative_strength": -15.446857, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.620449, "energy": 74.086912, "activity_lines": [ 57.748, 58.746545, 61.449904, 63.588773 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 57.419998, "volume": 52300, "typical_volume": 78495.0, "trend": 65.527999, "fair_value": 45.451923, "relative_strength": -15.058696, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.490757, "energy": 65.342851, "activity_lines": [ 57.577999, 58.279272, 60.867761, 63.055182 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 61.48, "volume": 70100, "typical_volume": 72570.0, "trend": 65.417666, "fair_value": 45.662884, "relative_strength": -11.862316, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.214592, "energy": 50.207981, "activity_lines": [ 58.785333, 58.674727, 60.740475, 62.794021 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }