{ "ticker": { "uuid": "07feef16-6d0c-4c94-b1c2-f3ce1097e1e8", "symbol": "CWE", "name": "Amundi Global Bioenergy UCITS ETF EUR Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.8, "architecture_energy": 87.485, "architecture_maturity": 68.422, "architecture_confidence": 76.712, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.58, "rotation_up": 79.95, "upward_expansion": 97.56, "deceleration": 41.86, "rotation_down": 8.83, "downward_expansion": 21.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 505.506671, 494.417822, 481.741145, 470.824261 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 499.350006, "trend_reference": 451.78567, "distance_from_trend": 0.105281, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 373.92303, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.335435, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.900084, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.245231, "excess_performance": 0.074339, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.105281, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101256, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.335435, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07283, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.049001, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043741, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.245231, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.607789, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 616, "relative_activity": 0.739363, "balance": 0.607789, "dry_up": 0.795775, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029281, "annualized_volatility": 0.194858, "from_high_reference": -0.049943, "from_low_reference": 0.505699 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 451.78567, "fair_value_reference": 373.92303, "structural_low": 400.570007, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.018629, "positive_rate": 0.689655, "directional_follow_through": 0.689655, "median_excess_return": 0.001996, "regime_survival": 0.758621, "best_return": 0.158963, "worst_return": -0.138157, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.080975, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.048018, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.294406, "worst_return": -0.057505, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.118938, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.000977, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.252353, "worst_return": -0.076895, "sufficient": true }, { 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458.389658 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 512.900024, "volume": 302, "typical_volume": 943.8, "trend": 442.753337, "fair_value": 372.465146, "relative_strength": 12.411692, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.524381, "energy": 91.861728, "activity_lines": [ 499.37334, 485.868186, 475.007479, 463.251573 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 508.399994, "volume": 1033, "typical_volume": 898.55, "trend": 447.620003, "fair_value": 373.230723, "relative_strength": 10.257163, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.400454, "energy": 89.284069, "activity_lines": [ 505.496669, 491.333457, 478.954431, 467.486841 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 499.350006, "volume": 616, "typical_volume": 833.15, "trend": 451.78567, "fair_value": 373.92303, "relative_strength": 4.900084, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.799981, "energy": 87.485219, "activity_lines": [ 505.506671, 494.417822, 481.741145, 470.824261 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }