{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "080115b0-47c1-4086-9207-c4652fd08d86",
    "symbol": "HEN",
    "name": "Henkel AG & Co. KGaA",
    "exchange": "VIE",
    "country": "AT",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^ATX",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch",
    "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 91.021,
    "architecture_energy": 77.846,
    "architecture_maturity": 24.638,
    "architecture_confidence": 57.713,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.",
        "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 11.67,
        "rotation_up": 81.18,
        "upward_expansion": 89.54,
        "deceleration": 50.96,
        "rotation_down": 11.79,
        "downward_expansion": 13.88
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        76.477332,
        75.107636,
        71.618544,
        70.594168
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 79.720001,
    "trend_reference": 70.363658,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.132971,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 70.349175,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.133204,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -6.989964,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.033026,
    "excess_performance": -0.141221,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.132971,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.025939,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.133204,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.206011,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.0699,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.129855,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.033026,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 3.67445,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 2911,
      "relative_activity": 6.85183,
      "balance": 3.67445,
      "dry_up": 3.184065,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.031205,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.277537,
      "from_high_reference": -0.017492,
      "from_low_reference": 0.296682
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 70.363658,
      "fair_value_reference": 70.349175,
      "structural_low": 61.48,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": -0.016555,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.03217,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.042078,
        "worst_return": -0.080963,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.020392,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.067521,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.009023,
        "worst_return": -0.251303,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.086243,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.015926,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
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        "worst_return": -0.234002,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.003194,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.042393,
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        "worst_return": -0.18561,
        "sufficient": false
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    ],
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        "end": "2024-11-01",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "return": 0.0359,
        "active": false
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      {
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "return": 0.051134,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.022199,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-08-22",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.057737,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.030025,
        "active": false
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "end": "2025-12-12",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "balance",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 501.15,
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 73.860001,
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        "typical_volume": 457.95,
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        "fair_value": 69.920124,
        "relative_strength": -12.822194,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 48.450488,
        "energy": 66.756689,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "fair_value": 69.990917,
        "relative_strength": -12.771132,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 453.65,
        "trend": 69.294448,
        "fair_value": 70.049507,
        "relative_strength": -12.033684,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 41.569764,
        "energy": 78.559086,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 74.860001,
        "volume": 1357,
        "typical_volume": 513.55,
        "trend": 69.521288,
        "fair_value": 70.113925,
        "relative_strength": -9.825693,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 37.157786,
        "energy": 76.931878,
        "activity_lines": [
          74.482668,
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          69.161015,
          69.302741
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 74.199997,
        "volume": 675,
        "typical_volume": 426.55,
        "trend": 69.74871,
        "fair_value": 70.173291,
        "relative_strength": -11.492569,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 40.465223,
        "energy": 74.427578,
        "activity_lines": [
          74.612,
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          69.604594
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 75.379997,
        "volume": 468,
        "typical_volume": 304.25,
        "trend": 70.012884,
        "fair_value": 70.25196,
        "relative_strength": -9.715629,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 44.495065,
        "energy": 54.564634,
        "activity_lines": [
          74.871999,
          73.744363,
          70.513646,
          69.967902
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 79.720001,
        "volume": 2911,
        "typical_volume": 424.85,
        "trend": 70.363658,
        "fair_value": 70.349175,
        "relative_strength": -6.989964,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 91.021332,
        "energy": 77.845835,
        "activity_lines": [
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          70.594168
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}