{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0803ccae-541a-432d-bd03-d70aee0f8709", "symbol": "USSRI", "name": "UBS MSCI USA Socially Responsible UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.944, "architecture_energy": 60.13, "architecture_maturity": 66.179, "architecture_confidence": 69.623, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.19, "rotation_up": 49.21, "upward_expansion": 72.5, "deceleration": 85.5, "rotation_down": 27.94, "downward_expansion": 22.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.899999, 21.921363, 21.484881, 20.851271 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 22.434999, "trend_reference": 20.125733, "distance_from_trend": 0.114742, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.728885, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.265449, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.965508, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.197683, "excess_performance": 0.026791, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.114742, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053714, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.265449, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063025, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.009655, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01325, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.197683, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.34131, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24038, "relative_activity": 0.858287, "balance": 2.34131, "dry_up": 1.121311, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019732, "annualized_volatility": 0.139606, "from_high_reference": -0.001113, "from_low_reference": 0.265798 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.125733, "fair_value_reference": 17.728885, "structural_low": 17.724001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.00411, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.03128, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.072863, "worst_return": -0.060373, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.020922, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.018813, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.161212, "worst_return": -0.220436, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.048179, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.107214, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.158554, "worst_return": -0.1063, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.042172, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.169022, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.368767, "worst_return": -0.0212, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000301, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02555, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.001033, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.113288, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023504, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001561, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.036217, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03768, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022458, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019357, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.042418, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 14.052, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 876.8, "trend": 13.239333, "fair_value": 12.601298, "relative_strength": -1.668375, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.683059, "energy": 62.44003, 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90.938005, "activity_lines": [ 21.785, 21.423691, 20.480262, 20.005293 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 22.23, "volume": 4455, "typical_volume": 25449.6, "trend": 19.621867, "fair_value": 17.476795, "relative_strength": -0.665013, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.151618, "energy": 91.18996, "activity_lines": [ 21.968334, 21.641, 20.712453, 20.180376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 22.309999, "volume": 12842, "typical_volume": 24621.05, "trend": 19.730467, "fair_value": 17.53009, "relative_strength": 0.152314, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.768561, "energy": 88.171279, "activity_lines": [ 22.123, 21.827909, 20.93551, 20.353804 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.719999, "volume": 16830, "typical_volume": 25165.55, "trend": 19.831267, "fair_value": 17.579244, "relative_strength": -1.018693, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.183781, "energy": 67.882701, "activity_lines": [ 22.026666, 21.861909, 21.085614, 20.482161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.684999, "volume": 41262, "typical_volume": 26009.75, "trend": 19.9309, "fair_value": 17.628173, "relative_strength": -0.940913, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.234077, "energy": 65.961, "activity_lines": [ 21.908333, 21.867545, 21.217862, 20.601757 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.379999, "volume": 43488, "typical_volume": 27392.15, "trend": 20.016633, "fair_value": 17.675147, "relative_strength": -2.874455, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.518095, "energy": 54.48974, "activity_lines": [ 21.709999, 21.800909, 21.307952, 20.695247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.434999, "volume": 24038, "typical_volume": 28006.95, "trend": 20.125733, "fair_value": 17.728885, "relative_strength": -0.965508, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.944011, "energy": 60.130398, "activity_lines": [ 21.899999, 21.921363, 21.484881, 20.851271 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }