{ "ticker": { "uuid": "08055c1f-34c2-475c-923d-b02e68ad0b0d", "symbol": "JOBY", "name": "Joby Aviation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.26, "architecture_energy": 55.729, "architecture_maturity": 62.102, "architecture_confidence": 86.179, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.74, "rotation_up": 12.73, "upward_expansion": 9.82, "deceleration": 42.28, "rotation_down": 68.43, "downward_expansion": 85.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.651333, 7.977091, 8.747095, 9.001312 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 8.64, "trend_reference": 9.613667, "distance_from_trend": -0.101279, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.538397, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.011899, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.318157, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.178707, "excess_performance": -0.304332, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.101279, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.174769, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.011899, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.27875, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.363182, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13153, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.178707, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.48206, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 170066336, "relative_activity": 0.998533, "balance": 0.48206, "dry_up": 1.389727, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.162074, "annualized_volatility": 0.659015, "from_high_reference": -0.567568, "from_low_reference": 0.303167 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.613667, "fair_value_reference": 8.538397, "structural_low": 6.63, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.031746, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.056923, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.354508, "worst_return": -0.257983, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.041498, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.093414, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 1.454277, "worst_return": -0.205152, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.071611, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.065905, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.19764, "worst_return": -0.259878, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.203065, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010542, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.089971, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.224736, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.4, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": 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74.76487, "activity_lines": [ 7.502667, 8.336545, 8.972, 9.267613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.15, "volume": 184547158, "typical_volume": 167523097.5, "trend": 9.838667, "fair_value": 8.532179, "relative_strength": -46.345562, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.336521, "energy": 72.933866, "activity_lines": [ 7.272667, 7.987091, 8.782524, 9.078645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.64, "volume": 170066336, "typical_volume": 170316187.1, "trend": 9.613667, "fair_value": 8.538397, "relative_strength": -36.318157, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.259539, "energy": 55.729053, "activity_lines": [ 7.651333, 7.977091, 8.747095, 9.001312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }