{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0806689f-cc49-4449-9a72-a69781949509", "symbol": "GNM", "name": "Great Northern Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 86.489, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 8.173, "architecture_energy": 11.382, "architecture_maturity": 26.934, "architecture_confidence": 70.586, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 75.0, "rotation_up": 44.0, "upward_expansion": 35.76, "deceleration": 43.31, "rotation_down": 21.32, "downward_expansion": 15.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.038333, 0.036709, 0.036962, 0.036708 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.039, "trend_reference": 0.037533, "distance_from_trend": 0.039076, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.02666, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.462852, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.503374, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.026316, "excess_performance": -0.03739, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039076, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107765, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.462852, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.23797, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.225034, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015474, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.026316, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.363416, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 936002, "relative_activity": 0.31799, "balance": 2.363416, "dry_up": 0.712574, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.208087, "annualized_volatility": 0.910695, "from_high_reference": -0.675, "from_low_reference": 1.4375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.037533, "fair_value_reference": 0.02666, "structural_low": 0.026, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": 0.001729, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 3.25, "worst_return": -0.315789, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.066667, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.133342, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 4.642857, "worst_return": -0.499992, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.200003, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.232654, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 4.266667, "worst_return": -0.599993, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.599995, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.557242, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 4.0, "worst_return": -0.636367, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.266667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.117647, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.230769, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.171429, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044444, 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-28.670244, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.372089, "energy": 32.171397, "activity_lines": [ 0.033, 0.036073, 0.0359, 0.036604 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.035, "volume": 2464247, "typical_volume": 2883961.85, "trend": 0.038133, "fair_value": 0.026526, "relative_strength": -24.827894, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.012392, "energy": 34.355504, "activity_lines": [ 0.033133, 0.035673, 0.035829, 0.036385 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.043, "volume": 4252835, "typical_volume": 3036371.25, "trend": 0.038067, "fair_value": 0.026596, "relative_strength": -8.253564, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.443306, "energy": 8.291964, "activity_lines": [ 0.036267, 0.036673, 0.036543, 0.036699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.037, "volume": 736750, "typical_volume": 3003300.2, "trend": 0.0378, "fair_value": 0.026615, "relative_strength": -23.480305, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.633206, "energy": 9.87045, "activity_lines": [ 0.0372, 0.0364, 0.036662, 0.03663 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.039, "volume": 936002, "typical_volume": 2943495.6, "trend": 0.037533, "fair_value": 0.02666, "relative_strength": -22.503374, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.172608, "energy": 11.382436, "activity_lines": [ 0.038333, 0.036709, 0.036962, 0.036708 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }