{ "ticker": { "uuid": "080f3afe-90e1-4ff1-b329-d1f52e168d05", "symbol": "RIT", "name": "CI Canadian REIT ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 54.887, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.988, "architecture_energy": 42.267, "architecture_maturity": 79.285, "architecture_confidence": 42.573, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.36, "rotation_up": 42.88, "upward_expansion": 68.17, "deceleration": 65.19, "rotation_down": 26.75, "downward_expansion": 18.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.288065, 18.329628, 18.10762, 17.863444 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 17.99, "trend_reference": 17.60153, "distance_from_trend": 0.02207, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.431754, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.165778, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.479666, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.039448, "excess_performance": -0.080974, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.02207, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039562, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.165778, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011456, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.064797, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014093, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.039448, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.376844, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26900, "relative_activity": 0.895175, "balance": 0.376844, "dry_up": 1.576539, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018438, "annualized_volatility": 0.126776, "from_high_reference": -0.038025, "from_low_reference": 0.134883 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.60153, "fair_value_reference": 15.431754, "structural_low": 16.235206, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.002736, "positive_rate": 0.517241, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": -0.008189, "regime_survival": 0.724138, "best_return": 0.097392, "worst_return": -0.092022, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.025415, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.045619, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.046842, "worst_return": -0.184251, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.002539, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.057113, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.06903, "worst_return": -0.167491, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"direction": 80.778304, "energy": 91.306761, "activity_lines": [ 18.489149, 18.281888, 17.942967, 17.717203 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.462, "volume": 105600, "typical_volume": 31460.0, "trend": 17.508844, "fair_value": 15.376417, "relative_strength": -1.84793, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.285771, "energy": 84.261215, "activity_lines": [ 18.50451, 18.352428, 18.024019, 17.783517 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.33, "volume": 20600, "typical_volume": 30840.0, "trend": 17.572295, "fair_value": 15.405175, "relative_strength": -1.902647, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.955505, "energy": 59.207586, "activity_lines": [ 18.452539, 18.377632, 18.085768, 17.836495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.99, "volume": 26900, "typical_volume": 30050.0, "trend": 17.60153, "fair_value": 15.431754, "relative_strength": -6.479666, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.987908, "energy": 42.266588, "activity_lines": [ 18.288065, 18.329628, 18.10762, 17.863444 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }