{ "ticker": { "uuid": "08117ee4-1c7a-4813-bc8b-a2524004375d", "symbol": "FICS", "name": "FIRST TRUST INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPED CAPITAL STRENGTH ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 69.863, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.994, "architecture_energy": 64.924, "architecture_maturity": 14.85, "architecture_confidence": 72.788, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.54, "rotation_up": 68.42, "upward_expansion": 87.83, "deceleration": 46.03, "rotation_down": 16.08, "downward_expansion": 12.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.4015, 42.079106, 41.418641, 41.039728 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 43.1895, "trend_reference": 40.720674, "distance_from_trend": 0.060628, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.913337, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.202603, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.303319, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.051881, "excess_performance": -0.135573, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060628, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021141, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.202603, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055568, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.053033, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096529, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.051881, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.424063, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48858, "relative_activity": 0.494373, "balance": 1.424063, "dry_up": 0.504512, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025417, "annualized_volatility": 0.156071, "from_high_reference": -0.004391, "from_low_reference": 0.166383 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.720674, "fair_value_reference": 35.913337, "structural_low": 37.82, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.001172, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.0247, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.041584, "worst_return": -0.090473, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.006004, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.077087, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.069526, "worst_return": -0.092385, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.034617, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.104736, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.056729, "worst_return": -0.008986, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.989918, "energy": 69.970482, "activity_lines": [ 41.988368, 41.482883, 40.890782, 40.69482 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.3803, "volume": 58478, "typical_volume": 104315.25, "trend": 40.533123, "fair_value": 35.752084, "relative_strength": -4.518337, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.834009, "energy": 63.187306, "activity_lines": [ 41.842887, 41.543759, 40.986045, 40.752177 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.419, "volume": 54465, "typical_volume": 101959.4, "trend": 40.618342, "fair_value": 35.830486, "relative_strength": -2.45735, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.519016, "energy": 57.226062, "activity_lines": [ 42.024107, 41.758953, 41.173734, 40.873847 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.1895, "volume": 48858, "typical_volume": 98828.2, "trend": 40.720674, "fair_value": 35.913337, "relative_strength": -5.303319, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.993711, "energy": 64.924412, "activity_lines": [ 42.4015, 42.079106, 41.418641, 41.039728 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }