{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0814728e-e38c-49a6-a716-283f00706c64", "symbol": "FEMS", "name": "FIRST TRUST EMERGING MARKETS SMALL CAP ALPHADEX FUND", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.804, "architecture_energy": 46.775, "architecture_maturity": 2.739, "architecture_confidence": 92.683, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.34, "rotation_up": 15.39, "upward_expansion": 11.95, "deceleration": 36.71, "rotation_down": 58.66, "downward_expansion": 82.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.57884, 44.930999, 45.536492, 45.672203 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 45.3, "trend_reference": 45.722204, "distance_from_trend": -0.009234, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.882559, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.165047, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.285723, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.005259, "excess_performance": -0.182195, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009234, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02443, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.165047, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104427, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.102857, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043609, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.005259, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.820769, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 158734, "relative_activity": 0.937471, "balance": 0.820769, "dry_up": 0.962521, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046848, "annualized_volatility": 0.210837, "from_high_reference": -0.080763, "from_low_reference": 0.131293 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.722204, "fair_value_reference": 38.882559, "structural_low": 41.886715, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.015328, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.005761, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.092807, "worst_return": -0.079543, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.012112, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.011817, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.103338, "worst_return": -0.017936, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.022468, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.012569, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.077946, "worst_return": -0.015281, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 163107.65, "trend": 45.564679, "fair_value": 38.693522, "relative_strength": -8.303225, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.570792, "energy": 15.085381, "activity_lines": [ 45.486723, 45.593353, 45.997725, 45.932368 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.135, "volume": 150550, "typical_volume": 162420.1, "trend": 45.632585, "fair_value": 38.752077, "relative_strength": -8.105419, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.046916, "energy": 26.73669, "activity_lines": [ 44.993333, 45.303922, 45.827995, 45.840131 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.4044, "volume": 250317, "typical_volume": 168362.85, "trend": 45.67469, "fair_value": 38.810298, "relative_strength": -9.894229, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.387293, "energy": 39.501918, "activity_lines": [ 44.416467, 44.918556, 45.589779, 45.696377 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.3, "volume": 158734, "typical_volume": 169321.5, "trend": 45.722204, "fair_value": 38.882559, "relative_strength": -10.285723, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.804438, "energy": 46.775289, "activity_lines": [ 44.57884, 44.930999, 45.536492, 45.672203 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }