{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0823bce1-d975-4a74-97c3-75ad72a59b2b", "symbol": "PONY", "name": "Pony AI Inc. American Depositary Shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.698, "architecture_energy": 37.061, "architecture_maturity": 80.726, "architecture_confidence": 88.385, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.66, "rotation_up": 27.3, "upward_expansion": 17.53, "deceleration": 46.23, "rotation_down": 39.1, "downward_expansion": 67.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.568667, 7.401818, 8.033048, 8.849011 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.15, "trend_reference": 10.311, "distance_from_trend": -0.209582, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.09618, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.377681, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -45.683885, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.430468, "excess_performance": -0.617922, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.209582, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.183201, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.377681, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041808, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.456839, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013911, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.430468, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.114987, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12585008, "relative_activity": 0.597495, "balance": 1.114987, "dry_up": 0.803324, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.137782, "annualized_volatility": 0.661648, "from_high_reference": -0.672953, "from_low_reference": 0.28044 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.311, "fair_value_reference": 13.09618, "structural_low": 6.365, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.027694, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01633, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.152269, "worst_return": -0.207657, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054524, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-29", "close": 13.02, "volume": 9490359, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-06", "close": 12.6, "volume": 4413584, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": 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"direction": -70.874454, "energy": 83.66146, "activity_lines": [ 6.815333, 7.456909, 8.377905, 9.461763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.13, "volume": 18642644, "typical_volume": 22375299.35, "trend": 10.886667, "fair_value": 13.213103, "relative_strength": -50.995014, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.66409, "energy": 73.096162, "activity_lines": [ 6.839333, 7.311455, 8.184429, 9.202559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.87, "volume": 20858944, "typical_volume": 22374426.35, "trend": 10.613333, "fair_value": 13.152386, "relative_strength": -45.604858, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.692118, "energy": 51.76286, "activity_lines": [ 7.190667, 7.321636, 8.086905, 9.007935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.15, "volume": 12585008, "typical_volume": 21062937.45, "trend": 10.311, "fair_value": 13.09618, "relative_strength": -45.683885, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.697859, "energy": 37.060993, "activity_lines": [ 7.568667, 7.401818, 8.033048, 8.849011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }