{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0826479c-c59f-4477-bbf7-c6303664eb2b", "symbol": "GODAVARIB", "name": "GODAVARI BIOREFINERIES L", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -76.406, "architecture_energy": 70.515, "architecture_maturity": 13.443, "architecture_confidence": 88.222, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.59, "rotation_up": 13.42, "upward_expansion": 14.83, "deceleration": 38.23, "rotation_down": 71.33, "downward_expansion": 90.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 259.90333, 266.667271, 279.991665, 286.004622 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 246.949997, "trend_reference": 288.169998, "distance_from_trend": -0.143041, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 266.744407, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.074207, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.076882, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.11535, "excess_performance": -0.071641, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.143041, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008343, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.074207, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.255603, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.110769, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.278285, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.11535, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.451934, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 719596, "relative_activity": 0.809287, "balance": 0.451934, "dry_up": 0.61928, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085956, "annualized_volatility": 0.367413, "from_high_reference": -0.300425, "from_low_reference": 0.085876 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 288.169998, "fair_value_reference": 266.744407, "structural_low": 246.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.103834, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062511, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071034, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-01", "close": 355.950012, "volume": 10591772, "typical_volume": null, 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281.762728, 293.593571, 293.625289 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 256.399994, "volume": 572724, "typical_volume": 1184986.25, "trend": 290.703665, "fair_value": 266.894221, "relative_strength": -7.474203, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.54331, "energy": 56.176296, "activity_lines": [ 269.123336, 275.984545, 289.583809, 291.380773 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 278.899994, "volume": 656921, "typical_volume": 1152304.0, "trend": 290.328331, "fair_value": 267.026152, "relative_strength": 3.20851, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.27337, "energy": 47.423576, "activity_lines": [ 270.483333, 275.326363, 287.899046, 290.619246 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 260.899994, "volume": 253346, "typical_volume": 1064354.85, "trend": 289.048331, "fair_value": 266.959564, "relative_strength": -5.606151, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.043547, "energy": 61.58005, "activity_lines": [ 266.853331, 271.752726, 284.55976, 288.720644 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 246.949997, "volume": 719596, "typical_volume": 889172.65, "trend": 288.169998, "fair_value": 266.744407, "relative_strength": -11.076882, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.406394, "energy": 70.515047, "activity_lines": [ 259.90333, 266.667271, 279.991665, 286.004622 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }