{ "ticker": { "uuid": "082728ea-2ae3-415f-ab25-bbe7ca5bdc5a", "symbol": "TBAL", "name": "TD Balanced ETF Portfolio", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 57.452, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.731, "architecture_energy": 51.587, "architecture_maturity": 75.267, "architecture_confidence": 49.498, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.51, "rotation_up": 47.1, "upward_expansion": 74.46, "deceleration": 71.0, "rotation_down": 28.54, "downward_expansion": 12.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.547909, 22.522903, 22.324328, 22.061971 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 22.82, "trend_reference": 21.767433, "distance_from_trend": 0.048355, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.560848, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.22947, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.502879, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.072787, "excess_performance": -0.047634, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048355, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025589, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.22947, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007203, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045029, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002291, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.072787, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.176829, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 106200, "relative_activity": 0.620001, "balance": 1.176829, "dry_up": 0.932775, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014601, "annualized_volatility": 0.090952, "from_high_reference": -0.006963, "from_low_reference": 0.16765 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.767433, "fair_value_reference": 18.560848, "structural_low": 20.385816, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.013368, "positive_rate": 0.74359, "directional_follow_through": 0.74359, "median_excess_return": -0.002052, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.035202, "worst_return": -0.051915, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.019118, "positive_rate": 0.923077, "directional_follow_through": 0.923077, "median_excess_return": -0.015252, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.073266, "worst_return": -0.000149, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.077768, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.020161, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.10052, "worst_return": 0.007297, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"direction": 64.979441, "energy": 58.572701, "activity_lines": [ 22.512933, 22.438935, 22.129512, 21.893879 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.369839, "volume": 125200, "typical_volume": 176385.0, "trend": 21.666978, "fair_value": 18.462933, "relative_strength": -4.139679, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.030167, "energy": 52.382438, "activity_lines": [ 22.459677, 22.445602, 22.185317, 21.942258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.42, "volume": 206100, "typical_volume": 176555.0, "trend": 21.717475, "fair_value": 18.510548, "relative_strength": -3.318651, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.633721, "energy": 41.133154, "activity_lines": [ 22.4378, 22.4507, 22.239529, 21.99084 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.82, "volume": 106200, "typical_volume": 171290.0, "trend": 21.767433, "fair_value": 18.560848, "relative_strength": -4.502879, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.730991, "energy": 51.58665, "activity_lines": [ 22.547909, 22.522903, 22.324328, 22.061971 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }