{ "ticker": { "uuid": "082aa909-e7f9-453c-9ddd-c5cc00a12c90", "symbol": "300439", "name": "Medicalsystem Biotechnology Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.627, "architecture_energy": 21.945, "architecture_maturity": 71.385, "architecture_confidence": 84.112, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.43, "rotation_up": 29.47, "upward_expansion": 17.75, "deceleration": 44.03, "rotation_down": 25.56, "downward_expansion": 60.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.731333, 8.593383, 8.866831, 9.142592 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 9.25, "trend_reference": 9.501569, "distance_from_trend": -0.026477, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.232956, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.096058, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.629201, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.091356, "excess_performance": -0.098755, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.026477, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057387, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.096058, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08182, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106292, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096185, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.091356, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.543093, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22560977, "relative_activity": 1.384542, "balance": 0.543093, "dry_up": 1.289304, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065833, "annualized_volatility": 0.261218, "from_high_reference": -0.241803, "from_low_reference": 0.154806 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.501569, "fair_value_reference": 10.232956, "structural_low": 8.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.006341, "positive_rate": 0.53125, "directional_follow_through": 0.46875, "median_excess_return": -0.001119, "regime_survival": 0.71875, "best_return": 0.16269, "worst_return": -0.255189, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.067978, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.010496, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.172881, "worst_return": -0.252095, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.038113, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.062085, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.139535, "worst_return": -0.336044, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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8.918803, 9.219805 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.64, "volume": 15195400, "typical_volume": 16725651.05, "trend": 9.521569, "fair_value": 10.243812, "relative_strength": -12.983469, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.686942, "energy": 38.037749, "activity_lines": [ 8.476667, 8.464677, 8.860055, 9.160112 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.25, "volume": 22560977, "typical_volume": 16294905.7, "trend": 9.501569, "fair_value": 10.232956, "relative_strength": -10.629201, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.627241, "energy": 21.944714, "activity_lines": [ 8.731333, 8.593383, 8.866831, 9.142592 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }