{ "ticker": { "uuid": "082e199e-6078-4ab3-885f-07899812ad8c", "symbol": "AW13", "name": "UBS MSCI Europe Climate Paris Aligned UCITS ETF EUR acc", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.323, "architecture_energy": 66.079, "architecture_maturity": 35.039, "architecture_confidence": 89.857, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.73, "rotation_up": 56.39, "upward_expansion": 82.47, "deceleration": 58.2, "rotation_down": 25.69, "downward_expansion": 11.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.218667, 19.134545, 18.818543, 18.542783 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.534, "trend_reference": 18.2774, "distance_from_trend": 0.068752, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.849761, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.232448, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.158888, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.082456, "excess_performance": 0.017816, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068752, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035379, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.232448, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061091, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.021589, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024393, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.082456, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.232472, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 798, "relative_activity": 0.923237, "balance": 6.232472, "dry_up": 1.051657, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01776, "annualized_volatility": 0.160383, "from_high_reference": -0.002553, "from_low_reference": 0.214499 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.2774, "fair_value_reference": 15.849761, "structural_low": 16.370001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.014269, "positive_rate": 0.586207, "directional_follow_through": 0.586207, "median_excess_return": -0.000592, "regime_survival": 0.758621, "best_return": 0.07175, "worst_return": -0.092408, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.032671, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.005058, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.076711, "worst_return": -0.026004, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.046028, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.015673, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.097695, "worst_return": 0.0124, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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5.552103, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.845245, "energy": 73.121165, "activity_lines": [ 18.683067, 18.463455, 18.150257, 18.039101 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 18.986, "volume": 109, "typical_volume": 1309.9, "trend": 17.910867, "fair_value": 15.625158, "relative_strength": 7.293598, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.011644, "energy": 77.392577, "activity_lines": [ 18.802934, 18.582109, 18.242619, 18.112731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 19.41, "volume": 62, "typical_volume": 1183.3, "trend": 17.989933, "fair_value": 15.666325, "relative_strength": 4.7632, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.761606, "energy": 87.874701, "activity_lines": [ 19.033333, 18.767382, 18.370886, 18.20945 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 19.054001, "volume": 722, "typical_volume": 1142.55, "trend": 18.0578, "fair_value": 15.702697, "relative_strength": 5.511508, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.411451, "energy": 81.508629, "activity_lines": [ 19.088534, 18.861346, 18.459286, 18.278099 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.969999, "volume": 77, "typical_volume": 879.2, "trend": 18.113734, "fair_value": 15.737748, "relative_strength": 5.784743, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.815672, "energy": 78.698856, "activity_lines": [ 19.075733, 18.920036, 18.537057, 18.336951 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.048, "volume": 790, "typical_volume": 818.5, "trend": 18.1708, "fair_value": 15.772325, "relative_strength": 4.856579, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.943929, "energy": 71.466128, "activity_lines": [ 19.072533, 18.975891, 18.620733, 18.397226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.118, "volume": 1971, "typical_volume": 857.25, "trend": 18.225067, "fair_value": 15.809697, "relative_strength": 2.869208, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.415884, "energy": 53.837506, "activity_lines": [ 19.080667, 19.0228, 18.703943, 18.458336 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.534, "volume": 798, "typical_volume": 864.35, "trend": 18.2774, "fair_value": 15.849761, "relative_strength": 2.158888, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.322767, "energy": 66.078543, "activity_lines": [ 19.218667, 19.134545, 18.818543, 18.542783 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }