{ "ticker": { "uuid": "083258c8-ef3f-4993-bd69-87f4e7ba8ebc", "symbol": "JPR", "name": "Jupiter Energy Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 80.375, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.534, "architecture_energy": 20.565, "architecture_maturity": 19.171, "architecture_confidence": 63.18, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.2, "rotation_up": 25.04, "upward_expansion": 6.89, "deceleration": 32.61, "rotation_down": 28.68, "downward_expansion": 51.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.025, 0.025, 0.025176, 0.025404 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.025, "trend_reference": 0.025433, "distance_from_trend": -0.017038, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.025955, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.036799, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.393486, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.086957, "excess_performance": 0.023251, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.017038, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026786, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.036799, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092703, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.113935, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071779, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.086957, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.212798, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 3.212798, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036923, "annualized_volatility": 0.428876, "from_high_reference": -0.404762, "from_low_reference": 0.190476 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.025433, "fair_value_reference": 0.025955, "structural_low": 0.021, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.00573, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.4375, "worst_return": -0.133333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.033333, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.000688, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.5625, "worst_return": -0.241379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.029605, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.263158, "worst_return": -0.214286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.098364, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.578947, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068966, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.037037, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.136364, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.02, "volume": 64674, "typical_volume": 116312.95, "trend": 0.023667, "fair_value": 0.034407, "relative_strength": -17.3357, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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"typical_volume": 98229.9, "trend": 0.025433, "fair_value": 0.025865, "relative_strength": -7.785356, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.983047, "energy": 17.680714, "activity_lines": [ 0.025, 0.024945, 0.025414, 0.025488 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.025, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 97879.9, "trend": 0.025433, "fair_value": 0.025904, "relative_strength": -7.241666, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.473672, "energy": 12.918918, "activity_lines": [ 0.025, 0.025, 0.025329, 0.02546 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.025, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 91879.9, "trend": 0.025433, "fair_value": 0.025929, "relative_strength": -9.034229, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.465244, "energy": 21.392545, "activity_lines": [ 0.025, 0.025, 0.025248, 0.025432 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.025, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 90550.4, "trend": 0.025433, "fair_value": 0.025955, "relative_strength": -11.393486, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.534107, "energy": 20.564527, "activity_lines": [ 0.025, 0.025, 0.025176, 0.025404 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }