{ "ticker": { "uuid": "08341de4-8fc5-4dcb-80e4-92de61067809", "symbol": "NBCC", "name": "NBCC (India) Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.401, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -15.975, "architecture_energy": 26.275, "architecture_maturity": 43.701, "architecture_confidence": 64.67, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.0, "rotation_up": 14.21, "upward_expansion": 15.17, "deceleration": 70.22, "rotation_down": 62.61, "downward_expansion": 42.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 95.456668, 98.715637, 98.975286, 96.988272 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 95.330002, "trend_reference": 95.627749, "distance_from_trend": -0.003114, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 92.17021, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.034282, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.729099, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.028981, "excess_performance": 0.014728, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003114, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043516, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.034282, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134456, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.057291, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043907, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.028981, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.15813, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26687002, "relative_activity": 0.628629, "balance": 1.15813, "dry_up": 0.784218, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063472, "annualized_volatility": 0.316855, "from_high_reference": -0.241548, "from_low_reference": 0.235165 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 95.627749, "fair_value_reference": 92.17021, "structural_low": 77.18, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.020057, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.011149, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.194457, "worst_return": -0.141885, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.017241, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.024801, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.536676, "worst_return": -0.122599, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.040155, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.042286, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.17979, "worst_return": -0.086245, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.820201, "energy": 31.039744, "activity_lines": [ 103.927334, 103.547092, 99.046619, 97.524259 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 97.25, "volume": 46123028, "typical_volume": 46524105.65, "trend": 97.944774, "fair_value": 90.929968, "relative_strength": -3.485955, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.826569, "energy": 11.19264, "activity_lines": [ 101.269334, 102.646728, 99.263715, 97.444369 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 93.839996, "volume": 34011762, "typical_volume": 45907839.35, "trend": 97.009272, "fair_value": 91.351597, "relative_strength": -4.461772, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.752491, "energy": 20.636255, "activity_lines": [ 98.001999, 101.188, 99.134238, 97.179544 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 94.800003, "volume": 26346919, "typical_volume": 44954645.55, "trend": 96.085462, "fair_value": 91.761908, "relative_strength": -5.725732, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.00161, "energy": 22.943291, "activity_lines": [ 96.228667, 99.903455, 99.057143, 97.037011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 95.330002, "volume": 26687002, "typical_volume": 42452728.8, "trend": 95.627749, "fair_value": 92.17021, "relative_strength": -5.729099, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.975112, "energy": 26.275288, "activity_lines": [ 95.456668, 98.715637, 98.975286, 96.988272 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }