{ "ticker": { "uuid": "08354c7b-dbdd-4a27-a3dc-fc612b889631", "symbol": "3380", "name": "Alpha Networks Inc.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.214, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.786, "architecture_energy": 71.463, "architecture_maturity": 16.948, "architecture_confidence": 83.249, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.71, "rotation_up": 9.77, "upward_expansion": 15.9, "deceleration": 37.29, "rotation_down": 77.03, "downward_expansion": 93.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.17, 29.815151, 31.730224, 32.588306 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 27.799999, "trend_reference": 33.168267, "distance_from_trend": -0.16185, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.822494, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.126404, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.314921, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.068349, "excess_performance": -0.509721, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.16185, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008236, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.126404, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076022, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.373149, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055568, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.068349, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.902773, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6483922, "relative_activity": 0.312404, "balance": 0.902773, "dry_up": 0.412214, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.132785, "annualized_volatility": 0.553744, "from_high_reference": -0.357702, "from_low_reference": 0.089923 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.168267, "fair_value_reference": 31.822494, "structural_low": 25.549999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.036885, "positive_rate": 0.789474, "directional_follow_through": 0.210526, "median_excess_return": 0.003034, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.12883, "worst_return": -0.192616, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.060317, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.035679, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.198354, "worst_return": -0.1465, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.000195, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.028197, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.116949, "worst_return": -0.036262, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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34.544524, 34.193187 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 33.237083, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 28522464.65, "trend": 33.621155, "fair_value": 32.174715, "relative_strength": -27.777643, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.159063, "energy": 9.657157, "activity_lines": [ 33.552219, 34.016867, 34.427755, 34.174233 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.799999, "volume": 10760867, "typical_volume": 28324253.2, "trend": 33.559108, "fair_value": 32.118602, "relative_strength": -30.552733, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.688877, "energy": 32.324315, "activity_lines": [ 32.317893, 33.288986, 33.966762, 33.927706 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.799999, "volume": 7649640, "typical_volume": 25924222.0, "trend": 33.533171, "fair_value": 32.035094, "relative_strength": -31.516667, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.8491, "energy": 44.449054, "activity_lines": [ 31.322553, 32.590472, 33.510412, 33.685183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.450001, "volume": 11529948, "typical_volume": 23631010.65, "trend": 33.387867, "fair_value": 31.952256, "relative_strength": -35.502539, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.496961, "energy": 68.994073, "activity_lines": [ 29.851803, 31.477939, 32.852013, 33.292721 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.950001, "volume": 8558443, "typical_volume": 21963782.7, "trend": 33.280567, "fair_value": 31.877652, "relative_strength": -35.318278, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.81091, "energy": 71.491954, "activity_lines": [ 28.785806, 30.568696, 32.280046, 32.941891 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 27.799999, "volume": 6483922, "typical_volume": 20754945.75, "trend": 33.168267, "fair_value": 31.822494, "relative_strength": -37.314921, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.785858, "energy": 71.463274, "activity_lines": [ 28.17, 29.815151, 31.730224, 32.588306 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }