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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 62.718, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.681, "architecture_energy": 14.535, "architecture_maturity": 21.488, "architecture_confidence": 71.741, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.14, "rotation_up": 35.16, "upward_expansion": 61.57, "deceleration": 79.99, "rotation_down": 24.28, "downward_expansion": 13.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 73.892667, 74.079636, 73.898881, 73.40134 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 74.65, "trend_reference": 72.799541, "distance_from_trend": 0.025419, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 57.744066, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.292774, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.333101, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.05243, "excess_performance": -0.073195, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025419, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024004, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.292774, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037629, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.033331, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06687, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.05243, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.088905, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5128096, "relative_activity": 1.132768, "balance": 1.088905, "dry_up": 0.844225, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046448, "annualized_volatility": 0.199541, "from_high_reference": -0.042185, "from_low_reference": 0.323292 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 72.799541, "fair_value_reference": 57.744066, "structural_low": 66.805243, 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23.076428, "activity_lines": [ 74.076, 73.800364, 73.318112, 72.778465 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 75.21, "volume": 4220388, "typical_volume": 4691154.0, "trend": 72.005273, "fair_value": 57.17748, "relative_strength": 0.461765, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.849795, "energy": 31.818017, "activity_lines": [ 74.555333, 74.054925, 73.549709, 72.993727 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 74.61, "volume": 3990058, "typical_volume": 4709739.4, "trend": 72.284874, "fair_value": 57.311335, "relative_strength": 0.980731, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.025564, "energy": 36.750838, "activity_lines": [ 74.672667, 74.192545, 73.711967, 73.161774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 75.29, "volume": 2780888, "typical_volume": 4621213.5, "trend": 72.52795, "fair_value": 57.455677, "relative_strength": 2.196325, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.751797, "energy": 35.667918, "activity_lines": [ 74.942667, 74.452, 73.93111, 73.355653 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 71.21, "volume": 3388346, "typical_volume": 4553361.85, "trend": 72.623908, "fair_value": 57.592359, "relative_strength": -4.481489, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.198796, "energy": 9.562217, "activity_lines": [ 73.683333, 73.925091, 73.749859, 73.270624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 74.65, "volume": 5128096, "typical_volume": 4527049.0, "trend": 72.799541, "fair_value": 57.744066, "relative_strength": -3.333101, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.6811, "energy": 14.534519, "activity_lines": [ 73.892667, 74.079636, 73.898881, 73.40134 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }