{ "ticker": { "uuid": "084744db-fa37-4512-85fc-9a00d35c08f2", "symbol": "CWP", "name": "Cedar Woods Properties Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -16.47, "architecture_energy": 10.13, "architecture_maturity": 18.044, "architecture_confidence": 71.266, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.89, "rotation_up": 26.9, "upward_expansion": 25.14, "deceleration": 48.02, "rotation_down": 26.13, "downward_expansion": 49.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.037333, 6.998, 6.978857, 7.106825 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.16, "trend_reference": 7.327804, "distance_from_trend": -0.0229, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.794683, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.235616, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.090263, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.014003, "excess_performance": -0.077708, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.0229, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06101, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.235616, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044718, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.100903, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053763, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.014003, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.658648, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 972402, "relative_activity": 1.355373, "balance": 0.658648, "dry_up": 0.951639, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053878, "annualized_volatility": 0.309793, "from_high_reference": -0.206915, "from_low_reference": 0.131122 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.327804, "fair_value_reference": 5.794683, "structural_low": 6.33, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.007199, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.00833, "regime_survival": 0.473684, "best_return": 0.125428, "worst_return": -0.166884, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.028009, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008797, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.231832, "worst_return": -0.208599, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.103003, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.066312, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.363471, "worst_return": -0.170554, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.261893, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.159337, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.692315, "worst_return": -0.365146, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02459, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.155248, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020408, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005729, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060897, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.26632, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045861, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.096544, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.12531, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.134703, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.01958, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.851917, "volume": 416742, "typical_volume": 329980.05, "trend": 4.216079, "fair_value": 4.381105, "relative_strength": 22.174921, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", 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7.209958 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.1, "volume": 782537, "typical_volume": 723057.15, "trend": 7.46515, "fair_value": 5.74773, "relative_strength": -6.281188, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.789887, "energy": 19.109236, "activity_lines": [ 6.985333, 6.934909, 6.995324, 7.182803 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.89, "volume": 405789, "typical_volume": 719619.85, "trend": 7.408928, "fair_value": 5.76283, "relative_strength": -8.712378, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.910005, "energy": 22.027581, "activity_lines": [ 6.963333, 6.930182, 6.971233, 7.145696 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.01, "volume": 570256, "typical_volume": 720923.45, "trend": 7.363576, "fair_value": 5.778361, "relative_strength": -9.196826, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.013816, "energy": 19.502809, "activity_lines": [ 6.974, 6.952, 6.965714, 7.119959 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.16, "volume": 972402, "typical_volume": 717442.2, "trend": 7.327804, "fair_value": 5.794683, "relative_strength": -10.090263, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.469648, "energy": 10.129583, "activity_lines": [ 7.037333, 6.998, 6.978857, 7.106825 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }