{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0847b5c1-d50c-4561-8cee-b6e834d62ddc", "symbol": "002623", "name": "Changzhou Almaden Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.338, "architecture_energy": 56.982, "architecture_maturity": 33.41, "architecture_confidence": 90.491, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.63, "rotation_up": 18.92, "upward_expansion": 9.52, "deceleration": 51.73, "rotation_down": 59.48, "downward_expansion": 80.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.891333, 15.396909, 17.117921, 18.70471 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.68, "trend_reference": 20.42029, "distance_from_trend": -0.232136, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.159974, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.181627, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.362445, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.359477, "excess_performance": -0.366877, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.232136, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045957, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.181627, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.27138, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.253624, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117836, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.359477, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.715134, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34137821, "relative_activity": 1.203342, "balance": 0.715134, "dry_up": 0.995038, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.139342, "annualized_volatility": 0.501004, "from_high_reference": -0.538144, "from_low_reference": 0.252396 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.42029, "fair_value_reference": 19.159974, "structural_low": 12.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.003532, "positive_rate": 0.516129, "directional_follow_through": 0.483871, "median_excess_return": 0.016197, "regime_survival": 0.774194, "best_return": 0.508129, "worst_return": -0.266782, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.008115, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.025051, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 1.33576, "worst_return": -0.380184, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.02, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.091491, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.447743, "worst_return": -0.145506, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.635211, "energy": 78.006929, "activity_lines": [ 15.566, 16.585241, 18.463379, 19.835992 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.82, "volume": 26691763, "typical_volume": 30805857.35, "trend": 20.62729, "fair_value": 19.296321, "relative_strength": -33.20392, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.540729, "energy": 67.845137, "activity_lines": [ 14.871333, 15.872464, 17.871623, 19.387823 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.86, "volume": 20575759, "typical_volume": 28662176.55, "trend": 20.500956, "fair_value": 19.222018, "relative_strength": -26.304826, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.721006, "energy": 63.047706, "activity_lines": [ 14.73, 15.505058, 17.432105, 19.01574 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.68, "volume": 34137821, "typical_volume": 28369177.9, "trend": 20.42029, "fair_value": 19.159974, "relative_strength": -25.362445, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.338248, "energy": 56.982127, "activity_lines": [ 14.891333, 15.396909, 17.117921, 18.70471 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }