{ "ticker": { "uuid": "084c9358-cf8e-44da-83f3-20955ff0ca1f", "symbol": "603916", "name": "Sobute New Materials Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 58.597, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.904, "architecture_energy": 50.297, "architecture_maturity": 7.245, "architecture_confidence": 67.267, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.5, "rotation_up": 14.26, "upward_expansion": 23.79, "deceleration": 51.8, "rotation_down": 68.18, "downward_expansion": 51.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.434667, 11.399636, 12.195308, 12.146651 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.6, "trend_reference": 12.090426, "distance_from_trend": -0.040563, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.597914, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.208596, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.974327, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.121212, "excess_performance": -0.078008, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.040563, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072249, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.208596, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086486, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.029743, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057813, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.121212, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.271146, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 55331767, "relative_activity": 0.910438, "balance": 1.271146, "dry_up": 0.833687, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.158345, "annualized_volatility": 0.588329, "from_high_reference": -0.304196, "from_low_reference": 0.372781 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.090426, "fair_value_reference": 9.597914, "structural_low": 8.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.02903, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.040876, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.282631, "worst_return": 0.009336, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.018516, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.004033, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.205394, "worst_return": -0.086957, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.353488, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.338146, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.729252, "worst_return": -0.260582, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"trend": 12.013093, "fair_value": 9.667981, "relative_strength": 0.150168, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.770945, "energy": 12.931863, "activity_lines": [ 13.196667, 13.618242, 13.015504, 12.634976 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.74, "volume": 46045407, "typical_volume": 60249062.0, "trend": 12.026759, "fair_value": 9.648337, "relative_strength": -10.372702, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.380778, "energy": 25.097855, "activity_lines": [ 11.897333, 12.880296, 12.7563, 12.488325 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.16, "volume": 57352913, "typical_volume": 59931350.65, "trend": 12.010093, "fair_value": 9.62417, "relative_strength": -16.64897, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.56226, "energy": 42.805416, "activity_lines": [ 10.712, 12.086691, 12.454859, 12.303372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.0, "volume": 43938782, "typical_volume": 59687724.35, "trend": 12.019093, "fair_value": 9.606627, "relative_strength": -8.890714, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.39738, "energy": 53.793653, "activity_lines": [ 10.144667, 11.549765, 12.245131, 12.173689 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.6, "volume": 55331767, "typical_volume": 60774861.85, "trend": 12.090426, "fair_value": 9.597914, "relative_strength": 2.974327, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.903682, "energy": 50.297235, "activity_lines": [ 10.434667, 11.399636, 12.195308, 12.146651 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }