{ "ticker": { "uuid": "08518016-7c2b-49e6-933d-1c140d561499", "symbol": "ABEV", "name": "Ambev SA ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 55.777, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 5.832, "architecture_energy": 9.444, "architecture_maturity": 13.187, "architecture_confidence": 84.514, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.12, "rotation_up": 20.78, "upward_expansion": 42.23, "deceleration": 79.21, "rotation_down": 32.68, "downward_expansion": 31.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.05, 3.080811, 3.097085, 3.067332 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.0, "trend_reference": 3.015271, "distance_from_trend": -0.005065, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.283299, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.313888, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.09229, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.020408, "excess_performance": -0.105217, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005065, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084651, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.313888, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155613, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.000923, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.184008, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.020408, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.920474, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 195969889, "relative_activity": 1.474891, "balance": 0.920474, "dry_up": 1.064702, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061144, "annualized_volatility": 0.350167, "from_high_reference": -0.127863, "from_low_reference": 0.511257 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.015271, "fair_value_reference": 2.283299, "structural_low": 2.7, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.006826, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.036761, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.09155, "worst_return": -0.099631, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.024321, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.032845, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.082608, "worst_return": -0.15717, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.111502, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.137894, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.246458, "worst_return": 0.038194, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.062521, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031391, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.082609, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049383, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.063917, "energy": 13.294171, "activity_lines": [ 3.086726, 3.12174, 3.095678, 3.052374 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.06, "volume": 84231170, "typical_volume": 126119092.25, "trend": 2.979271, "fair_value": 2.275204, "relative_strength": 7.368852, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.834033, "energy": 15.722195, "activity_lines": [ 3.070667, 3.108202, 3.097306, 3.058937 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.11, "volume": 183993341, "typical_volume": 129064683.05, "trend": 3.000605, "fair_value": 2.279392, "relative_strength": 7.486646, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.717658, "energy": 14.747621, "activity_lines": [ 3.074667, 3.103773, 3.103029, 3.067371 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.0, "volume": 195969889, "typical_volume": 132870792.4, "trend": 3.015271, "fair_value": 2.283299, "relative_strength": -0.09229, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.832228, "energy": 9.444092, "activity_lines": [ 3.05, 3.080811, 3.097085, 3.067332 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }